Exact Score: Manchester United FC 1 - 0 Aston Villa FC?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$330.06

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 100¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares5,310

Combined PnL+$317.82

Yes5 traders

Total Value$19.24

Total Shares2,426

Combined PnL+$12.25

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 93¢	$4.8K	$4.8K	+$312.86	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.9¢	$425.78	$426	+$0.21	98% 20123-398 (20521)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 93¢	$70.86	$57.63	+$3.82	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.9¢	$1.4K	$12.38	-$28.8	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$12.38	$12.31	+$0.93	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.0K	$5	+$51.11	25% 1311-3950 (5261)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 5¢	$200.32	$1	-$9.01	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.86	$0.78	-$0.08	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$15	$0.08	-$0.97	48% 2039-2213 (4252)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,813.11

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$312.86

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

pvc975

Invested

$425.78

Value

$426

PnL

+$0.21

Record

98%

20123-398 (20521)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$70.86

Value

$57.63

PnL

+$3.82

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,381.44

Value

$12.38

PnL

-$28.8

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$12.38

Value

$12.31

PnL

+$0.93

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

PnL

+$51.11

Record

25%

1311-3950 (5261)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$200.32

Value

PnL

-$9.01

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.86

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.