Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 92¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 7

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.4K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 91.5¢

+17% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$23.8K

Total Shares26,174

Combined PnL+$2.1K

Over4 traders

Total Value$124.71

Total Shares1,016

Combined PnL-$3.48

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 72.2¢	$7.3K	$8.7K	+$1.5K	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
FR freeman123	Underavg 89.4¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$261.36	82% 587-129 (716)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 72.6¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$572.2	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
GC GC-P	Underavg 72¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$217.5	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
NM NM-P	Underavg 71.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.82	64% 10181-5719 (15900)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 72¢	$669.25	$831.92	+$162.67	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 27¢	$835.2	$507.65	-$327.54	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
└ Over leg	Overavg 27¢	$645.64	$286.95	-$358.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 75.6¢	$189.56	$220.7	+$31.14
38 38791873984189	Underavg 72¢	$666.97	$505.6	-$32.88	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 12.1¢	$98.26	$101.72	+$3.46	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 73¢	$86.59	$69.83	-$26.38	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 72.4¢	$29.98	$30.02	+$0.04	58% 21687-15792 (37479)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 14.2¢	$21.83	$16.03	-$5.8	54% 10448-8768 (19216)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 10.4¢	$6.2	$5.34	-$0.86	47% 11018-12633 (23651)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 72¢	$3.6	$3.55	-$0.05	52% 9014-8167 (17181)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Overavg 10¢	$1.9	$1.62	-$0.28	58% 3235-2328 (5563)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$7,286.74

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

freeman123

Under

Invested

$8,044.35

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$261.36

Record

82%

587-129 (716)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,775.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$572.2

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$1,080

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$217.5

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$1,138.27

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.82

Record

64%

10181-5719 (15900)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$669.25

Value

$831.92

PnL

+$162.67

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$835.2

Value

$507.65

PnL

-$327.54

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

Both legs:

Over$645.6427¢-$358.69

Under$189.5675.6¢+$31.14

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$666.97

Value

$505.6

PnL

-$32.88

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$98.26

Value

$101.72

PnL

+$3.46

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$86.59

Value

$69.83

PnL

-$26.38

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$29.98

Value

$30.02

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

21687-15792 (37479)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.83

Value

$16.03

PnL

-$5.8

Record

54%

10448-8768 (19216)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.2

Value

$5.34

PnL

-$0.86

Record

47%

11018-12633 (23651)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

9014-8167 (17181)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.62

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

3235-2328 (5563)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 14 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.