Leeds United FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 7

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 100¢

+64% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$14.3K

Total Shares14,848

Combined PnL+$4.5K

Over8 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares8,484

Combined PnL$-2.1K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 65.1¢	$5.8K	$8.4K	+$2.7K	73% 3103-1171 (4274)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 60.7¢	$2.9K	$3.6K	+$668.21	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
RN1CTR	Overavg 36.3¢	$4.0K	$2.1K	$-1.8K	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Overavg 51.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$106.23	51% 38217-37441 (75658)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.6¢	$406.31	$614.76	+$208.45
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.6¢	$734.37	$419.69	-$314.68
VE Venusian	Underavg 40.3¢	$355.4	$877.01	+$521.61	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 37.3¢	$227.15	$608.73	+$381.57	49% 1791-1892 (3683)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 41.8¢	$223.18	$413.07	+$189.89	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 59.9¢	$854.54	$345.35	-$222.07	48% 62393-67249 (129642)
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 99¢	$253.08	$254.36	+$1.28	79% 5350-1384 (6734)
LI Limousin	Underavg 49.3¢	$103.08	$150.43	+$47.35	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 67¢	$86.61	$65.28	-$21.33	64% 10178-5767 (15945)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 73¢	$28.74	$35.29	+$6.55	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Overavg 17.7¢	$18.05	$16.82	-$1.23	54% 1243-1053 (2296)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Overavg 31¢	$17.05	$11.55	-$5.5	47% 9560-10672 (20232)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Overavg 29.8¢	$15.22	$8.67	-$6.55	47% 4121-4665 (8786)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 16¢	$16.01	$0.05	-$15.96	49% 14981-15890 (30871)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$11.71	$0.02	-$11.69	47% 11018-12633 (23651)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$5,761.24

Value

$8.4K

PnL

+$2.7K

Record

73%

3103-1171 (4274)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$2,890.33

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$668.21

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,953.24

Value

$2.1K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,140.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$106.23

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

Both legs:

Under$406.3146.6¢+$208.45

Over$734.3751.6¢-$314.68

Venusian

Under

Invested

$355.4

Value

$877.01

PnL

+$521.61

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$227.15

Value

$608.73

PnL

+$381.57

Record

49%

1791-1892 (3683)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$223.18

Value

$413.07

PnL

+$189.89

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$854.54

Value

$345.35

PnL

-$222.07

Record

48%

62393-67249 (129642)

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$253.08

Value

$254.36

PnL

+$1.28

Record

79%

5350-1384 (6734)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$103.08

Value

$150.43

PnL

+$47.35

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$86.61

Value

$65.28

PnL

-$21.33

Record

64%

10178-5767 (15945)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$28.74

Value

$35.29

PnL

+$6.55

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$18.05

Value

$16.82

PnL

-$1.23

Record

54%

1243-1053 (2296)

lryyyCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.05

Value

$11.55

PnL

-$5.5

Record

47%

9560-10672 (20232)

shiifooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.22

Value

$8.67

PnL

-$6.55

Record

47%

4121-4665 (8786)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.01

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$15.96

Record

49%

14981-15890 (30871)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.71

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$11.69

Record

47%

11018-12633 (23651)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.