Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-11-08?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 49¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 8

Yes49¢No51¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.6K

Combined PnL

-$262.47

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 48.5¢

-3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes49%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares17,366

Combined PnL-$256.43

No6 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,819

Combined PnL-$6.04

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Yesavg 50¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$239.09	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 49.5¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$64.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$65.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$0.77
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$70.76	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.2¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$70.51
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48.5¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0.25
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 51¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$27.71	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
VE Venusian	Noavg 50¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$47.38	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
LooksMaxing101	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$54.91	51% 888-849 (1737)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$870.72	$879.79	+$9.07	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Noavg 51.3¢	$458.52	$456.65	-$0.87	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ No leg	Noavg 51.3¢	$280.65	$281.58	+$0.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$176.87	$175.07	-$1.8
VeryLucky888	Noavg 50¢	$1.3K	$446.64	+$3.03	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$438.43	$436.92	-$1.51	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$281.55	$284.48	+$2.93
└ No leg	Noavg 53¢	$156.88	$152.44	-$4.44
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 52¢	$312	$309	-$3	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
AF afrazCTR	Yesavg 48¢	$192	$194	+$2	59% 194-136 (330)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.5¢	$57.68	$54.53	-$1.14	58% 23579-16943 (40522)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 48.5¢	$48.5	$49.5	+$1	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 51¢	$47.42	$47.89	+$0.46	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 51.2¢	$46.06	$45.38	+$0.45	48% 7452-7984 (15436)

darkumbreon88CTR

Yes

Invested

$4,782.17

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$239.09

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,970.39

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$64.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Both legs:

No$1,575.1349.5¢+$65.27

Yes$1,395.2648.5¢-$0.77

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,700.26

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$70.76

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

No$1,523.8949.2¢+$70.51

Yes$1,176.3748.5¢+$0.25

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,747.14

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$27.71

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Venusian

Invested

$1,579.19

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$47.38

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

LooksMaxing101

Invested

$1,084.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$54.91

Record

51%

888-849 (1737)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$870.72

Value

$879.79

PnL

+$9.07

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Invested

$458.52

Value

$456.65

PnL

-$0.87

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

No$280.6551.3¢+$0.93

Yes$176.8749¢-$1.8

VeryLucky888

Invested

$1,347.83

Value

$446.64

PnL

+$3.03

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$438.43

Value

$436.92

PnL

-$1.51

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

Yes$281.5548¢+$2.93

No$156.8853¢-$4.44

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$312

Value

$309

PnL

-$3

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

afrazCTR

Yes

Invested

$192

Value

$194

PnL

+$2

Record

59%

194-136 (330)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.68

Value

$54.53

PnL

-$1.14

Record

58%

23579-16943 (40522)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$48.5

Value

$49.5

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$47.42

Value

$47.89

PnL

+$0.46

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$46.06

Value

$45.38

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 49%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.