Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 53¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 67%
$7.4K
-$167.03
57.8¢ → 52.5¢
-9% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 58¢ | $5.1K | $4.8K | -$305.14 | 51% 27227-25781 (53008) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 57¢ | $239.11 | $1.3K | +$50.32 | 50% 28937-28754 (57691) |
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR | Underavg 41¢ | $596.41 | $661.87 | +$65.46 | 48% 405-446 (851) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 42.1¢ | $352.91 | $381.29 | +$28.38 | 48% 62396-67251 (129647) |
SN SnakeBall | Overavg 58¢ | $116 | $114 | -$1 | 51% 38228-37447 (75675) |
 tradecraft | Overavg 56.9¢ | $111.81 | $107.17 | -$4.64 | 51% 6512-6277 (12789) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Overavg 57¢ | $28.96 | $28.96 | +$0 | 64% 2039-1134 (3173) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 59.2¢ | $29.61 | $28.5 | -$1.11 | 46% 8770-10463 (19233) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 42¢ | $8.44 | $9.15 | +$0.7 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
Invested
$5,057.5
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$305.14
Record
51%
27227-25781 (53008)
Invested
$239.11
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$50.32
Record
50%
28937-28754 (57691)
Invested
$596.41
Value
$661.87
PnL
+$65.46
Record
48%
405-446 (851)
Invested
$352.91
Value
$381.29
PnL
+$28.38
Record
48%
62396-67251 (129647)
Invested
$116
Value
$114
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
38228-37447 (75675)
tradecraftInvested
$111.81
Value
$107.17
PnL
-$4.64
Record
51%
6512-6277 (12789)
Invested
$28.96
Value
$28.96
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
2039-1134 (3173)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$29.61
Value
$28.5
PnL
-$1.11
Record
46%
8770-10463 (19233)
Invested
$8.44
Value
$9.15
PnL
+$0.7
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.