Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5)
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Crystal Palace FC (78%) · Crystal Palace FC at 63¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Crystal Palace FC
9
Crystal Palace FC 78%
$2.2K
$65.9
61.8¢ → 62.5¢
+1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralCrystal Palace FC at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Crystal Palace FCavg 62¢ | $684.05 | $689.57 | +$5.52 | 48% 405-446 (851) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Liverpool FCavg 38¢ | $536.14 | $543.19 | +$7.05 | 42% 8192-11384 (19576) |
 VeryLucky888 | Crystal Palace FCavg 61¢ | $518.14 | $510.87 | +$51.67 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
38 38791873984189 | Crystal Palace FCavg 62¢ | $528.74 | $266.19 | -$1.53 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Liverpool FCavg 38¢ | $85.83 | $86.95 | +$1.11 | 50% 26504-26107 (52611) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Crystal Palace FCavg 62.3¢ | $89.72 | $29.29 | +$0.21 | 58% 23579-16943 (40522) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Crystal Palace FCavg 66¢ | $18.81 | $19.38 | +$0.57 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Crystal Palace FCavg 63.2¢ | $16.62 | $17.89 | +$1.27 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Crystal Palace FCavg 62¢ | $3.72 | $3.75 | +$0.03 | 54% 10485-8797 (19282) |
Invested
$684.05
Value
$689.57
PnL
+$5.52
Record
48%
405-446 (851)
Invested
$536.14
Value
$543.19
PnL
+$7.05
Record
42%
8192-11384 (19576)
VeryLucky888Invested
$518.14
Value
$510.87
PnL
+$51.67
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$528.74
Value
$266.19
PnL
-$1.53
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
Invested
$85.83
Value
$86.95
PnL
+$1.11
Record
50%
26504-26107 (52611)
Invested
$89.72
Value
$29.29
PnL
+$0.21
Record
58%
23579-16943 (40522)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$18.81
Value
$19.38
PnL
+$0.57
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$16.62
Value
$17.89
PnL
+$1.27
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
10485-8797 (19282)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Multicoloured-Serf
Crystal Palace FC — $689.57
ferrariChampions2026
CTRLiverpool FC — $543.19
VeryLucky888
Crystal Palace FC — $510.87
38791873984189
Crystal Palace FC — $266.19
sentrio
CTRLiverpool FC — $86.95
ghorrock
Crystal Palace FC — $29.29
rayvanmechelen
Crystal Palace FC — $19.38
Flaznorp
Crystal Palace FC — $17.89
Pan9X
Crystal Palace FC — $3.75