Southend United FC vs. Aldershot Town FC: O/U 2.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $858 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 44%
$857.76
-$172.7
82.5¢ → 100¢
+21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 84¢ | $399.48 | $359.4 | -$40.08 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
 RN1 | Overavg 83¢ | $319 | $319 | -$0 | 55% 5363-4304 (9667) |
WA WagerWizard<$100 | Overavg 88¢ | $96.36 | $88.7 | -$7.66 | 40% 137-209 (346) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 68¢ | $67.98 | $83.44 | +$17.47 | 53% 1351-1180 (2531) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $1.66 | $2.9 | +$1.24 | 45% 805-991 (1796) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Underavg 30¢ | $6 | $2.8 | -$3.2 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Underavg 31.9¢ | $1.61 | $0.71 | -$0.9 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Underavg 16.9¢ | $140.13 | $0.42 | -$139.71 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 11¢ | $0.25 | $0.39 | +$0.15 | 37% 1028-1723 (2751) |
Invested
$399.48
Value
$359.4
PnL
-$40.08
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
RN1Invested
$319
Value
$319
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
5363-4304 (9667)
Invested
$96.36
Value
$88.7
PnL
-$7.66
Record
40%
137-209 (346)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$67.98
Value
$83.44
PnL
+$17.47
Record
53%
1351-1180 (2531)
Invested
$1.66
Value
$2.9
PnL
+$1.24
Record
45%
805-991 (1796)
Invested
$6
Value
$2.8
PnL
-$3.2
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$1.61
Value
$0.71
PnL
-$0.9
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$140.13
Value
$0.42
PnL
-$139.71
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.15
Record
37%
1028-1723 (2751)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.