Will Southend United FC win on 2026-11-14?

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (53%) · Yes at 97¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Yes97¢No3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 53%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

-$823.76

Smart Money Entry

79.6¢ → 97.4¢

+22% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares5,924

Combined PnL-$327.01

No8 traders

Total Value$360.41

Total Shares3,035

Combined PnL-$496.75

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 81.7¢	$3.0K	$2.5K	-$567.34	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 77.5¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$178.85	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 71.2¢	$454.89	$441.9	-$12.99	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 71.2¢	$239.03	$243.52	+$4.49
└ No leg	Noavg 29.9¢	$215.86	$198.38	-$17.48
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 68.3¢	$261.27	$315.08	+$53.81	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
Secondhandvinyl	Yesavg 95.6¢	$210.32	$211.63	+$1.31	76% 235-76 (311)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 95.8¢	$210.24	$202.89	-$7.35	40% 137-209 (346)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 28.9¢	$97.22	$127.63	+$30.41	36% 948-1669 (2617)
poshposh	Yesavg 64¢	$96	$105	+$9	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$49.68	$62.1	+$12.42	38% 544-884 (1428)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 63¢	$55.44	$61.6	+$6.16	45% 805-991 (1796)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 30¢	$60	$60	+$0	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 35.7¢	$540.96	$57.58	-$483.38	37% 960-1662 (2622)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 95¢	$52.82	$48.68	-$1.54	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 9.9¢	$68.26	$26.14	-$42.12	36% 933-1644 (2577)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$23.04	$15.56	-$7.49	30% 335-776 (1111)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 40.7¢	$17.73	$11.11	-$6.62	37% 970-1635 (2605)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Yesavg 63.5¢	$6.35	$6.45	+$0.1	44% 372-467 (839)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 5¢	$0.26	$0.29	+$0.03	47% 895-994 (1889)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$3,046.2

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$567.34

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,216.61

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$178.85

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$454.89

Value

$441.9

PnL

-$12.99

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Both legs:

Yes$239.0371.2¢+$4.49

No$215.8629.9¢-$17.48

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$261.27

Value

$315.08

PnL

+$53.81

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

Secondhandvinyl

Yes

Invested

$210.32

Value

$211.63

PnL

+$1.31

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$210.24

Value

$202.89

PnL

-$7.35

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$97.22

Value

$127.63

PnL

+$30.41

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$96

Value

$105

PnL

+$9

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$49.68

Value

$62.1

PnL

+$12.42

Record

38%

544-884 (1428)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.44

Value

$61.6

PnL

+$6.16

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$60

Value

$60

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$540.96

Value

$57.58

PnL

-$483.38

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.82

Value

$48.68

PnL

-$1.54

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$68.26

Value

$26.14

PnL

-$42.12

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$23.04

Value

$15.56

PnL

-$7.49

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$17.73

Value

$11.11

PnL

-$6.62

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.26

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 17 top traders (53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.5%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.