Will Southend United FC vs. Aldershot Town FC end in a draw?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$213.52
85.6¢ → 96.4¢
+13% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 91.7¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$42.74 | 53% 2085-1830 (3915) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 83.9¢ | $445.96 | $416.19 | -$28.11 | 49% 3821-3983 (7804) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83.9¢ | $277.71 | $311.15 | +$33.44 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.3¢ | $164.52 | $105.04 | -$61.55 | |
SL SlickRick123 | Noavg 80¢ | $205.6 | $196.61 | -$9 | 34% 368-702 (1070) |
 RN1 | Noavg 72¢ | $157.16 | $165.89 | +$8.73 | 55% 5363-4304 (9667) |
 poshposh | Noavg 80¢ | $120 | $114.75 | -$5.25 | 49% 1117-1185 (2302) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $80.26 | $83.56 | +$3.3 | 52% 820-759 (1579) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $70.4 | $67.32 | -$3.08 | 45% 805-991 (1796) |
VE VenusianCTR | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $231.44 | $59.55 | -$171.89 | 36% 948-1669 (2617) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 81.3¢ | $16.25 | $19 | +$2.75 | 48% 2074-2236 (4310) |
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $93.98 | $13.6 | -$80.38 | 40% 137-209 (346) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $10.38 | $13.5 | +$3.13 | 37% 1028-1723 (2751) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $13.73 | $9.15 | -$4.58 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
Invested
$1,111.08
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$42.74
Record
53%
2085-1830 (3915)
Invested
$445.96
Value
$416.19
PnL
-$28.11
Record
49%
3821-3983 (7804)
Both legs:
Invested
$205.6
Value
$196.61
PnL
-$9
Record
34%
368-702 (1070)
RN1Invested
$157.16
Value
$165.89
PnL
+$8.73
Record
55%
5363-4304 (9667)
poshposhInvested
$120
Value
$114.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
49%
1117-1185 (2302)
Invested
$80.26
Value
$83.56
PnL
+$3.3
Record
52%
820-759 (1579)
Invested
$70.4
Value
$67.32
PnL
-$3.08
Record
45%
805-991 (1796)
Invested
$231.44
Value
$59.55
PnL
-$171.89
Record
36%
948-1669 (2617)
Invested
$16.25
Value
$19
PnL
+$2.75
Record
48%
2074-2236 (4310)
Invested
$93.98
Value
$13.6
PnL
-$80.38
Record
40%
137-209 (346)
Invested
$10.38
Value
$13.5
PnL
+$3.13
Record
37%
1028-1723 (2751)
Invested
$13.73
Value
$9.15
PnL
-$4.58
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.