Will Aldershot Town FC win on 2026-11-14?

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (54%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 54%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$50.78

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 98.9¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL-$47.83

Yes6 traders

Total Value$60.56

Total Shares1,127

Combined PnL-$2.95

No — 54%Yes — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 86.7¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$78.87	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 95.5¢	$547.21	$568.12	+$20.91	37% 970-1635 (2605)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 95.7¢	$243.12	$252.73	+$9.61	40% 137-209 (346)
poshposh	Noavg 88¢	$205.33	$205.33	+$0	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
NO NotJump<$100	Noavg 87¢	$69.26	$69.66	+$0.4	52% 820-759 (1579)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$47.37	$43.99	-$3.38	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$10	$9.17	-$0.83	40% 433-650 (1083)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 87¢	$6.69	$6.77	+$0.08	36% 933-1644 (2577)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$4.5	$4.6	+$0.09	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.4	+$0.05	44% 372-467 (839)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$1.36	$2.55	+$1.19	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$0.27	$0.18	-$0.09	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.07	+$0.06	55% 5363-4304 (9667)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,095.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$78.87

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

MadridTime

Invested

$547.21

Value

$568.12

PnL

+$20.91

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

WagerWizard

Invested

$243.12

Value

$252.73

PnL

+$9.61

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

poshposh

Invested

$205.33

Value

$205.33

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

NotJump<$100

Invested

$69.26

Value

$69.66

PnL

+$0.4

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.37

Value

$43.99

PnL

-$3.38

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.17

PnL

-$0.83

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$6.69

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$0.08

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.5

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$0.09

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.36

Value

$2.55

PnL

+$1.19

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$0.09

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.