Kidderminster Harriers FC vs. FC Halifax Town: O/U 1.5

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

55.2¢ → 100¢

+81% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares7,163

Combined PnL+$22.76

Over9 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares6,634

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 44.7¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$84.06	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
AR ARocky33	Overavg 56¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K	78% 786-220 (1006)
RO Rocky31	Overavg 55¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$22.86	42% 100-138 (238)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 53.1¢	$641.15	$747	+$105.84	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 44.3¢	$281.49	$196.88	-$84.61	47% 895-994 (1889)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 54¢	$86.07	$159.31	+$73.24	40% 137-209 (346)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 28.7¢	$29.39	$47.17	+$17.78	36% 933-1644 (2577)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$14.44	$14.52	+$0.07	99% 460-7 (467)
PA pauleta23<$100	Overavg 72¢	$10	$13.88	+$3.88	40% 433-650 (1083)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 35.3¢	$10.48	$13.66	+$3.18	37% 960-1662 (2622)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 29.9¢	$7.73	$8.52	+$0.79	76% 235-76 (311)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 52¢	$7.54	$7.83	+$0.29	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 66¢	$5.18	$5.46	+$0.27	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$4.65	$5.09	+$0.44	35% 440-800 (1240)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 33.5¢	$3.69	$5.06	+$1.37	37% 970-1635 (2605)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 67¢	$5.26	$4.08	-$1.18	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.21	$3.95	-$0.26	36% 948-1669 (2617)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$2,881.12

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$84.06

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$1,499.42

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

78%

786-220 (1006)

Rocky31

Over

Invested

$1,673.04

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$22.86

Record

42%

100-138 (238)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$641.15

Value

$747

PnL

+$105.84

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$281.49

Value

$196.88

PnL

-$84.61

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$86.07

Value

$159.31

PnL

+$73.24

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.39

Value

$47.17

PnL

+$17.78

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$14.44

Value

$14.52

PnL

+$0.07

Record

99%

460-7 (467)

pauleta23<$100

Over

Invested

$10

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$3.88

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.48

Value

$13.66

PnL

+$3.18

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.73

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$0.79

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$7.54

Value

$7.83

PnL

+$0.29

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$5.18

Value

$5.46

PnL

+$0.27

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.65

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.44

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.69

Value

$5.06

PnL

+$1.37

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$5.26

Value

$4.08

PnL

-$1.18

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.21

Value

$3.95

PnL

-$0.26

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 17 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.