Will Kidderminster Harriers FC win on 2026-11-14?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$726.19

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 98¢

+58% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares9,856

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$125.16

Total Shares2,819

Combined PnL-$989.89

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 61.6¢	$4.9K	$6.2K	+$1.4K	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 32.3¢	$3.7K	$2.4K	$-1.3K	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
└ No leg	Noavg 74¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$310.87
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32.3¢	$2.3K	$685.23	$-1.6K
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 59¢	$891.61	$1.0K	+$120.9	47% 895-994 (1889)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 67¢	$554.68	$769.97	+$215.29	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 61.8¢	$60.96	$90.24	+$29.29	36% 933-1644 (2577)
AR ARocky33CTR	Yesavg 39.9¢	$1.3K	$82.02	-$881.31	78% 786-220 (1006)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 93.6¢	$69.05	$70.06	+$1.01	76% 235-76 (311)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$27.98	$28.88	+$0.9	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 83.2¢	$32.63	$22.7	-$0.92	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 81¢	$18.18	$16.39	-$1.79	30% 335-776 (1111)
WA WagerWizardCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$121.89	$12.5	-$109.39	40% 137-209 (346)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 61¢	$9.6	$10.54	+$0.94	36% 948-1669 (2617)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 36¢	$2.82	$3.02	+$0.2	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 65¢	$1.86	$1.91	+$0.06	35% 440-800 (1240)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 41¢	$1.01	$0.89	-$0.12	40% 433-650 (1083)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.88	+$0.03	44% 372-467 (839)

RN1

Invested

$4,864.16

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$3,729.22

Value

$2.4K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Both legs:

No$1,397.2874¢+$310.87

Yes$2,331.9332.3¢$-1.6K

SnakeBall

Invested

$891.61

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$120.9

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

MadridTime

Invested

$554.68

Value

$769.97

PnL

+$215.29

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$60.96

Value

$90.24

PnL

+$29.29

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

ARocky33CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,330.6

Value

$82.02

PnL

-$881.31

Record

78%

786-220 (1006)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$69.05

Value

$70.06

PnL

+$1.01

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.98

Value

$28.88

PnL

+$0.9

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$32.63

Value

$22.7

PnL

-$0.92

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$18.18

Value

$16.39

PnL

-$1.79

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

WagerWizardCTR

Yes

Invested

$121.89

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$109.39

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$9.6

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.94

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.02

PnL

+$0.2

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$1.86

Value

$1.91

PnL

+$0.06

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.01

Value

$0.89

PnL

-$0.12

Record

40%

433-650 (1083)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.88

PnL

+$0.03

Record

44%

372-467 (839)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 58% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.