Will Kidderminster Harriers FC vs. FC Halifax Town end in a draw?

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes92¢No8¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$29.86

Smart Money Entry

67¢ → 92¢

+37% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,358

Combined PnL+$120.8

No5 traders

Total Value$297.04

Total Shares1,372

Combined PnL-$90.94

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 73.7¢	$804.82	$886.78	+$101.67	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 23¢	$212.38	$253.93	+$41.55	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
poshposh<$100	Yesavg 78.4¢	$84.6	$90.59	+$5.99	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$41.47	$48.38	+$6.91	35% 440-800 (1240)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$37.68	$38.81	+$1.13	36% 933-1644 (2577)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Noavg 37.3¢	$76.29	$18.41	-$57.88	13% 49-336 (385)
LR lryyy<$100	Yesavg 66.8¢	$14.01	$14.21	+$0.2	45% 805-991 (1796)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$11.47	$12.27	+$0.8	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$84.2	$11.31	-$72.89	40% 137-209 (346)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$8.93	$11.09	+$2.16	47% 895-994 (1889)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 9.2¢	$10.21	$8.9	-$1.31	30% 335-776 (1111)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$8.32	$8.24	-$0.08	37% 960-1662 (2622)
dips.<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$6.16	$8.1	+$1.94	47% 969-1098 (2067)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.9	$4.48	-$0.41	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.95	+$0	82% 709-151 (860)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$2.5	$2.58	+$0.08	48% 2074-2236 (4310)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$804.82

Value

$886.78

PnL

+$101.67

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$212.38

Value

$253.93

PnL

+$41.55

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

poshposh<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.6

Value

$90.59

PnL

+$5.99

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

LuckyLoo<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.47

Value

$48.38

PnL

+$6.91

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.68

Value

$38.81

PnL

+$1.13

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Invested

$76.29

Value

$18.41

PnL

-$57.88

Record

13%

49-336 (385)

lryyy<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.01

Value

$14.21

PnL

+$0.2

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

topdogbigboi<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.47

Value

$12.27

PnL

+$0.8

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Invested

$84.2

Value

$11.31

PnL

-$72.89

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

SnakeBall<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.93

Value

$11.09

PnL

+$2.16

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$10.21

Value

$8.9

PnL

-$1.31

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.32

Value

$8.24

PnL

-$0.08

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

dips.<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.16

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$1.94

Record

47%

969-1098 (2067)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.95

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

709-151 (860)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.58

PnL

+$0.08

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.