Will Tamworth FC win on 2026-10-23?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 53¢ · $267 held · ended Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$267.34
$2.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $216.85 | $205.39 | -$11.46 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.2¢ | $115.64 | $103.77 | -$11.87 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 58.3¢ | $101.21 | $101.62 | +$0.41 | |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $37.91 | $37.29 | -$0.62 | 58% 52330-38533 (90863) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $11.45 | $15.33 | +$3.88 | 53% 2714-2387 (5101) |
YO youcanbuythisbot<$100 | Noavg 46.2¢ | $7.13 | $6.4 | -$0.73 | 49% 11202-11573 (22775) |
BL BlackMamba08CTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2 | $2.93 | +$0.2 | 49% 103-107 (210) |
Invested
$216.85
Value
$205.39
PnL
-$11.46
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.91
Value
$37.29
PnL
-$0.62
Record
58%
52330-38533 (90863)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$11.45
Value
$15.33
PnL
+$3.88
Record
53%
2714-2387 (5101)
Invested
$7.13
Value
$6.4
PnL
-$0.73
Record
49%
11202-11573 (22775)
Invested
$2
Value
$2.93
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
103-107 (210)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.