Will Carlisle United FC win on 2026-11-14?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$12.29

Smart Money Entry

69.6¢ → 100¢

+44% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,065

Combined PnL+$285.23

No7 traders

Total Value$19.09

Total Shares1,045

Combined PnL-$297.52

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 69.3¢	$671.35	$936.3	+$265.9	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$63.17	$78.25	+$15.08	46% 2653-3138 (5791)
WA WagerWizard<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$25.19	$28.61	+$3.42	40% 137-209 (346)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$22.72	$11.01	-$11.72	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 68¢	$3.4	$4.23	+$0.82	30% 335-776 (1111)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.75	$2.67	-$0.08	36% 948-1669 (2617)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$1.91	$1.85	-$0.06	37% 960-1662 (2622)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$1.75	$1.65	-$0.1	42% 995-1363 (2358)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 1.9¢	$0.95	$1.08	+$0.13	35% 440-800 (1240)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 32.6¢	$283.05	$0.43	-$282.62	37% 970-1635 (2605)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$3.48	$0.41	-$3.08	47% 895-994 (1889)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$671.35

Value

$936.3

PnL

+$265.9

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.17

Value

$78.25

PnL

+$15.08

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

WagerWizard<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.19

Value

$28.61

PnL

+$3.42

Record

40%

137-209 (346)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$22.72

Value

$11.01

PnL

-$11.72

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.82

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$0.08

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$1.91

Value

$1.85

PnL

-$0.06

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.1

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.13

Record

35%

440-800 (1240)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$283.05

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$282.62

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$3.48

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$3.08

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-29 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.