Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $113 held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$113.17
-$614.8
9.9¢ → 0.4¢
-96% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DD dddtripsCTR | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $648.04 | $68.19 | -$579.85 | 38% 598-971 (1569) |
PO poposub<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $21.62 | $20.99 | -$0.63 | 46% 2053-2452 (4505) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $6.67 | $15.92 | +$9.8 | 19% 526-2292 (2818) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $9.2 | $4.2 | -$5 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $51.25 | $2.01 | -$49.24 | 64% 2374-1317 (3691) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $66.24 | $1.86 | +$10.12 | 36% 15335-27408 (42743) |
Invested
$648.04
Value
$68.19
PnL
-$579.85
Record
38%
598-971 (1569)
Invested
$21.62
Value
$20.99
PnL
-$0.63
Record
46%
2053-2452 (4505)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$6.67
Value
$15.92
PnL
+$9.8
Record
19%
526-2292 (2818)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$9.2
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$5
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
Invested
$51.25
Value
$2.01
PnL
-$49.24
Record
64%
2374-1317 (3691)
Invested
$66.24
Value
$1.86
PnL
+$10.12
Record
36%
15335-27408 (42743)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.