Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $927 held · ends Nov 3

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$926.67

Combined PnL

-$25.87

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 99.7¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$912.82

Total Shares950

Combined PnL-$30.62

Yes2 traders

Total Value$13.85

Total Shares1,277

Combined PnL+$4.76

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 98.7¢	$1.8K	$746.6	-$27.96	64% 2367-1317 (3684)
balthazar	Noavg 97.4¢	$136.33	$134.38	-$1.95	61% 20767-13185 (33952)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$32.54	$31.83	-$0.71	57% 13257-10098 (23355)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$5.56	$7.22	+$1.67	19% 526-2288 (2814)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$3.54	$6.63	+$3.09	36% 14999-27063 (42062)

bipbipbop

Invested

$1,823.83

Value

$746.6

PnL

-$27.96

Record

64%

2367-1317 (3684)

balthazar

Invested

$136.33

Value

$134.38

PnL

-$1.95

Record

61%

20767-13185 (33952)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$32.54

Value

$31.83

PnL

-$0.71

Record

57%

13257-10098 (23355)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$1.67

Record

19%

526-2288 (2814)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.54

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$3.09

Record

36%

14999-27063 (42062)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.