Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?
Resolved No. 14% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Yes 100%
$0
-$445.29
Smart Money Signal
2 of 14 top traders (14%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $15.55 | — | -$445.29 | 19% 526-2287 (2813) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | — | — | +$0 | 61% 20693-13116 (33809) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 48% 3419-3695 (7114) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 30% 259-603 (862) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | — | — | +$0 | 31% 309-674 (983) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 28% 164-422 (586) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | — | — | +$0 | 32% 315-677 (992) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | — | — | +$0 | 31% 292-648 (940) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 6330-5547 (11877) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 13143-10017 (23160) |
BI bipbipbop<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 2363-1315 (3678) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | — | — | +$0 | 26% 281-787 (1068) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | — | — | +$0 | 36% 14865-26983 (41848) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | — | — | +$0 | 18% 3782-17079 (20861) |
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$15.55
Value
—
PnL
-$445.29
Record
19%
526-2287 (2813)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
20693-13116 (33809)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
3419-3695 (7114)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
259-603 (862)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
309-674 (983)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
28%
164-422 (586)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
315-677 (992)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
292-648 (940)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6330-5547 (11877)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
13143-10017 (23160)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
2363-1315 (3678)
Istaroth<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
281-787 (1068)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
14865-26983 (41848)
2B9S<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
18%
3782-17079 (20861)
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