Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$3.43

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 99.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,488

Combined PnL+$7.44

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.07

Total Shares1,359

Combined PnL-$4

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 98.8¢	$611.12	$613.07	+$1.97	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 98.1¢	$146.32	$147.84	+$1.52	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95.4¢	$173.29	$145.42	+$5.18	54% 562-474 (1036)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.3¢	$134.01	$133.79	-$0.22	27% 936-2514 (3450)
PO pollo07	Noavg 99.3¢	$116.35	$116.12	-$0.24	27% 499-1317 (1816)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.4¢	$108.35	$108.02	-$0.33	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$99.3	$99.1	-$0.2	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$91.32	$91.13	-$0.18	28% 521-1360 (1881)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$19.88	$19.82	-$0.06	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$7.46	$4.02	-$3.33	8% 9-104 (113)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$3.72	$3.05	-$0.67	— 0-9 (9)

Lucerys

Invested

$611.12

Value

$613.07

PnL

+$1.97

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

cigarettes

Invested

$146.32

Value

$147.84

PnL

+$1.52

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

ghorrock

Invested

$173.29

Value

$145.42

PnL

+$5.18

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

northdrawer

Invested

$134.01

Value

$133.79

PnL

-$0.22

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

pollo07

Invested

$116.35

Value

$116.12

PnL

-$0.24

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$108.35

Value

$108.02

PnL

-$0.33

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$99.3

Value

$99.1

PnL

-$0.2

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

akroll<$100

Invested

$91.32

Value

$91.13

PnL

-$0.18

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.88

Value

$19.82

PnL

-$0.06

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.46

Value

$4.02

PnL

-$3.33

Record

9-104 (113)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.72

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.67

Record

—

0-9 (9)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 11 top traders (82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 52%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (10 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.