Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$11.64

Smart Money Entry

94.5¢ → 98¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,390

Combined PnL+$21.72

Yes1 trader

Total Value$23.3

Total Shares1,059

Combined PnL-$10.08

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 95.6¢	$591.14	$603.18	+$12.05	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 94¢	$140.24	$145.45	+$5.21	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 86.9¢	$124.44	$111.15	-$1.91	3% 1-31 (32)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 97.1¢	$105.89	$106.27	+$0.38	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$96.6	$97.47	+$0.87	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97¢	$72.75	$73.13	+$0.38	17% 66-330 (396)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$54.1	$54.6	+$0.5	27% 499-1317 (1816)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 85¢	$55.69	$42.2	+$1.13	10% 3-26 (29)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 84¢	$27.83	$29.72	+$1.89	41% 3116-4481 (7597)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$28.98	$29.25	+$0.27	40% 1455-2158 (3613)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$28.89	$29.25	+$0.36	17% 76-374 (450)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$33.38	$23.3	-$10.08	8% 9-104 (113)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97¢	$19.4	$19.5	+$0.1	30% 2706-6209 (8915)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$15.37	$14.63	+$0.49	54% 553-471 (1024)

Lucerys

Invested

$591.14

Value

$603.18

PnL

+$12.05

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

cigarettes

Invested

$140.24

Value

$145.45

PnL

+$5.21

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

WarriorH

Invested

$124.44

Value

$111.15

PnL

-$1.91

Record

1-31 (32)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$105.89

Value

$106.27

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$96.6

Value

$97.47

PnL

+$0.87

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$72.75

Value

$73.13

PnL

+$0.38

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$54.1

Value

$54.6

PnL

+$0.5

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$55.69

Value

$42.2

PnL

+$1.13

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$27.83

Value

$29.72

PnL

+$1.89

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$28.98

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$0.27

Record

40%

1455-2158 (3613)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$28.89

Value

$29.25

PnL

+$0.36

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.38

Value

$23.3

PnL

-$10.08

Record

9-104 (113)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$19.4

Value

$19.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.37

Value

$14.63

PnL

+$0.49

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Mature

32h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.