Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

15 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$84.11

Smart Money Entry

87.8¢ → 94.5¢

+8% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,408

Combined PnL+$102.49

Yes1 trader

Total Value$60.18

Total Shares1,003

Combined PnL-$18.38

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

147h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 94% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 89.9¢	$555.88	$584.63	+$28.75	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 84.2¢	$467.49	$480.44	+$12.95	3% 1-31 (32)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 86.1¢	$244.35	$247.03	+$6.39	10% 3-26 (29)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 86.1¢	$145.72	$159.88	+$14.16	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 86.2¢	$220.63	$154.04	+$11.53	4% 1-27 (28)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.4¢	$123.21	$128.66	+$5.45	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
PO pollo07	Noavg 91¢	$106.68	$110.73	+$4.05	27% 499-1317 (1816)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 93¢	$101.37	$103.01	+$1.63	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 91¢	$91	$94.5	+$3.5	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 91¢	$83.68	$86.9	+$3.22	28% 521-1360 (1881)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 92¢	$69	$70.88	+$1.88	26% 860-2483 (3343)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$80.73	$60.18	-$18.38	8% 9-104 (113)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 90¢	$27	$28.35	+$1.35	24% 77-243 (320)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 91¢	$27.3	$28.35	+$1.05	17% 76-374 (450)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 92¢	$18.4	$18.9	+$0.5	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 83.8¢	$56.99	$17.31	+$6.08	54% 562-474 (1036)

Lucerys

Invested

$555.88

Value

$584.63

PnL

+$28.75

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

WarriorH

Invested

$467.49

Value

$480.44

PnL

+$12.95

Record

1-31 (32)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$244.35

Value

$247.03

PnL

+$6.39

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

cigarettes

Invested

$145.72

Value

$159.88

PnL

+$14.16

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$220.63

Value

$154.04

PnL

+$11.53

Record

1-27 (28)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$123.21

Value

$128.66

PnL

+$5.45

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

pollo07

Invested

$106.68

Value

$110.73

PnL

+$4.05

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$101.37

Value

$103.01

PnL

+$1.63

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$91

Value

$94.5

PnL

+$3.5

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

akroll<$100

Invested

$83.68

Value

$86.9

PnL

+$3.22

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$69

Value

$70.88

PnL

+$1.88

Record

26%

860-2483 (3343)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.73

Value

$60.18

PnL

-$18.38

Record

9-104 (113)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$27

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$1.35

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$27.3

Value

$28.35

PnL

+$1.05

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$18.9

PnL

+$0.5

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$56.99

Value

$17.31

PnL

+$6.08

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 16 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Late

147h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 94% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.