Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 89¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$4.54

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 88.5¢

+10% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,952

Combined PnL+$28.98

Yes1 trader

Total Value$102.84

Total Shares857

Combined PnL-$24.44

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 81.6¢	$545.96	$554.98	+$9.03	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 79.6¢	$393.83	$338.45	-$6.6	3% 1-31 (32)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 78.2¢	$225.02	$167.48	+$12.5	4% 1-27 (28)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 78.3¢	$116.81	$123.82	+$7.01	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
QU quiet-ferretCTR	Yesavg 14.9¢	$137.63	$102.84	-$24.44	8% 9-104 (113)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 83¢	$90.47	$90.47	+$0	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 82¢	$82	$83	+$1	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$99.07	$70.14	+$0.68	10% 3-26 (29)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 83¢	$62.25	$62.25	+$0	24% 77-243 (320)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 81.5¢	$59.47	$60.59	+$1.12	27% 499-1317 (1816)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$38.56	$39.63	+$1.07	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$55.84	$28.79	+$2.97	54% 562-474 (1036)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 83¢	$16.6	$16.6	+$0	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 82¢	$16.4	$16.6	+$0.2	28% 521-1360 (1881)

Lucerys

Invested

$545.96

Value

$554.98

PnL

+$9.03

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

WarriorH

Invested

$393.83

Value

$338.45

PnL

-$6.6

Record

1-31 (32)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$225.02

Value

$167.48

PnL

+$12.5

Record

1-27 (28)

cigarettes

Invested

$116.81

Value

$123.82

PnL

+$7.01

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

quiet-ferretCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.63

Value

$102.84

PnL

-$24.44

Record

9-104 (113)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$90.47

Value

$90.47

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$82

Value

$83

PnL

+$1

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$99.07

Value

$70.14

PnL

+$0.68

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$62.25

Value

$62.25

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

77-243 (320)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$59.47

Value

$60.59

PnL

+$1.12

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$38.56

Value

$39.63

PnL

+$1.07

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$55.84

Value

$28.79

PnL

+$2.97

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$0

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

akroll<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

$16.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.