Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

13 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (93%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 93%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$18.41

Smart Money Entry

76.3¢ → 80.5¢

+6% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No13 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,111

Combined PnL+$10.69

Yes1 trader

Total Value$134.09

Total Shares583

Combined PnL+$7.72

No — 93%Yes — 7%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 75.3¢	$465.81	$476.36	+$10.56	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 75.8¢	$360.89	$241.8	-$1.43	4% 1-27 (28)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 79¢	$205.93	$191.91	-$5.92	3% 1-31 (32)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 78.3¢	$182.08	$175.65	-$6.43	10% 3-26 (29)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 78¢	$138.97	$143.43	+$4.46	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
QU quiet-ferretCTR	Yesavg 21.7¢	$128.9	$134.09	+$7.72	8% 9-104 (113)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 80.2¢	$97.34	$93.5	-$3.84	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$86.09	$90.22	+$4.13	27% 499-1317 (1816)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 72¢	$78.48	$83.93	+$5.45	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 72.6¢	$76.2	$80.85	+$4.65	27% 936-2514 (3450)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 77¢	$70.81	$70.81	-$0	28% 521-1360 (1881)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 77¢	$23.1	$23.1	+$0	17% 66-330 (396)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 73¢	$14.6	$15.4	+$0.8	30% 2714-6211 (8925)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80.8¢	$64.3	$7.7	-$1.74	54% 562-474 (1036)

Lucerys

Invested

$465.81

Value

$476.36

PnL

+$10.56

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$360.89

Value

$241.8

PnL

-$1.43

Record

1-27 (28)

WarriorH

Invested

$205.93

Value

$191.91

PnL

-$5.92

Record

1-31 (32)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$182.08

Value

$175.65

PnL

-$6.43

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

cigarettes

Invested

$138.97

Value

$143.43

PnL

+$4.46

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

quiet-ferretCTR

Yes

Invested

$128.9

Value

$134.09

PnL

+$7.72

Record

9-104 (113)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$97.34

Value

$93.5

PnL

-$3.84

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$86.09

Value

$90.22

PnL

+$4.13

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$78.48

Value

$83.93

PnL

+$5.45

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$76.2

Value

$80.85

PnL

+$4.65

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

akroll<$100

Invested

$70.81

Value

$70.81

PnL

-$0

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$23.1

Value

$23.1

PnL

+$0

Record

17%

66-330 (396)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

$15.4

PnL

+$0.8

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$64.3

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$1.74

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

13 of 14 top traders (93%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 43%

Freshness

Late

140h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

93% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 93% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.