Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

15 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 71¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$213.46

Smart Money Entry

81.4¢ → 71.1¢

-13% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,081

Combined PnL-$213.46

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 81.8¢	$394.17	$337.35	-$56.81	37% 3204-5379 (8583)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 83.8¢	$260.29	$229.69	-$22.79	3% 1-31 (32)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 88.1¢	$150.78	$133.65	-$13.26	10% 3-26 (29)
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 77¢	$348.67	$130.9	-$18.28	8% 9-104 (113)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 80.8¢	$144.83	$128.38	-$16.44	53% 5667-5090 (10757)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 83.8¢	$148.67	$126.67	-$22	41% 3118-4481 (7599)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 76.2¢	$151.43	$112.71	-$19.61	4% 1-27 (28)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 86.3¢	$152.67	$75.29	-$19.1	54% 562-474 (1036)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$79.1	$70	-$9.1	51% 4654-4528 (9182)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 75.1¢	$154.52	$62.35	-$0.03	66% 4111-2135 (6246)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$44.52	$39.2	-$5.32	27% 499-1317 (1816)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 79.5¢	$23.85	$21	-$2.85	40% 1456-2158 (3614)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 79.1¢	$23.73	$21	-$2.73	27% 104-283 (387)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$24.11	$20.9	-$3.21	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 79.6¢	$15.92	$14	-$1.92	30% 2714-6211 (8925)

Lucerys

Invested

$394.17

Value

$337.35

PnL

-$56.81

Record

37%

3204-5379 (8583)

WarriorH

Invested

$260.29

Value

$229.69

PnL

-$22.79

Record

1-31 (32)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$150.78

Value

$133.65

PnL

-$13.26

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$348.67

Value

$130.9

PnL

-$18.28

Record

9-104 (113)

cigarettes

Invested

$144.83

Value

$128.38

PnL

-$16.44

Record

53%

5667-5090 (10757)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$148.67

Value

$126.67

PnL

-$22

Record

41%

3118-4481 (7599)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$151.43

Value

$112.71

PnL

-$19.61

Record

1-27 (28)

ghorrock

Invested

$152.67

Value

$75.29

PnL

-$19.1

Record

54%

562-474 (1036)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$79.1

Value

$70

PnL

-$9.1

Record

51%

4654-4528 (9182)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$154.52

Value

$62.35

PnL

-$0.03

Record

66%

4111-2135 (6246)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$44.52

Value

$39.2

PnL

-$5.32

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$23.85

Value

$21

PnL

-$2.85

Record

40%

1456-2158 (3614)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$23.73

Value

$21

PnL

-$2.73

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$24.11

Value

$20.9

PnL

-$3.21

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$15.92

Value

$14

PnL

-$1.92

Record

30%

2714-6211 (8925)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 15 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 38%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 38% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.1%

71.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.