Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?

16 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$198.22

Smart Money Entry

83.7¢ → 76.9¢

-8% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,654

Combined PnL-$198.22

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 82¢	$1.7K	$1.4K	-$87.98	8% 9-104 (113)
Lucerys	Noavg 85¢	$526.06	$495.54	-$30.52	37% 3197-5378 (8575)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 89.6¢	$185.53	$172.24	-$13.29	3% 1-31 (32)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 90.5¢	$135.57	$119.94	-$15.63	53% 5657-5082 (10739)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 81.5¢	$722.84	$106.03	-$4.56	66% 4109-2134 (6243)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 83.7¢	$91.27	$87.31	-$3.96	53% 1609-1415 (3024)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 80.3¢	$82.51	$79.9	-$2.61	41% 3116-4481 (7597)
AK akroll<$100	Noavg 82.2¢	$75.59	$73.66	-$1.93	28% 521-1360 (1881)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$73.89	$72.09	-$1.8	51% 4649-4526 (9175)
GH ghorrock	Noavg 95.7¢	$250.67	$61.22	-$28.59	54% 553-471 (1024)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 82.8¢	$62.1	$60.07	-$2.03	17% 76-374 (450)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$47.66	$44.86	-$2.8	27% 499-1317 (1816)
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$33.03	$33.03	-$0	10% 3-26 (29)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$24.51	$24.03	-$0.48	27% 936-2514 (3450)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 85.1¢	$25.53	$24.03	-$1.5	27% 104-283 (387)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 82.9¢	$16.57	$16.02	-$0.55	30% 2706-6209 (8915)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$1,659.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$87.98

Record

9-104 (113)

Lucerys

Invested

$526.06

Value

$495.54

PnL

-$30.52

Record

37%

3197-5378 (8575)

WarriorH

Invested

$185.53

Value

$172.24

PnL

-$13.29

Record

1-31 (32)

cigarettes

Invested

$135.57

Value

$119.94

PnL

-$15.63

Record

53%

5657-5082 (10739)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$722.84

Value

$106.03

PnL

-$4.56

Record

66%

4109-2134 (6243)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$91.27

Value

$87.31

PnL

-$3.96

Record

53%

1609-1415 (3024)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$82.51

Value

$79.9

PnL

-$2.61

Record

41%

3116-4481 (7597)

akroll<$100

Invested

$75.59

Value

$73.66

PnL

-$1.93

Record

28%

521-1360 (1881)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$73.89

Value

$72.09

PnL

-$1.8

Record

51%

4649-4526 (9175)

ghorrock

Invested

$250.67

Value

$61.22

PnL

-$28.59

Record

54%

553-471 (1024)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$62.1

Value

$60.07

PnL

-$2.03

Record

17%

76-374 (450)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$47.66

Value

$44.86

PnL

-$2.8

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Invested

$33.03

Value

$33.03

PnL

-$0

Record

10%

3-26 (29)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$24.51

Value

$24.03

PnL

-$0.48

Record

27%

936-2514 (3450)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$25.53

Value

$24.03

PnL

-$1.5

Record

27%

104-283 (387)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$16.57

Value

$16.02

PnL

-$0.55

Record

30%

2706-6209 (8915)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 77%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 16 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

142h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.8%

76.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.