Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (91%) · No at 98¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 91%
$7.6K
-$22.81
98.9¢ → 98.4¢
-1% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 98%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 11 top traders (91%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
10 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
91% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quiet-ferret | Noavg 98.9¢ | $6.3K | $5.9K | -$39 | 8% 9-104 (113) |
 Lucerys | Noavg 99¢ | $612.46 | $607.51 | -$4.93 | 37% 3197-5378 (8575) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 98.5¢ | $405.81 | $351.75 | -$1.13 | 54% 553-471 (1024) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 98.7¢ | $133.2 | $132.57 | -$0.63 | 27% 936-2514 (3450) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.6¢ | $128.65 | $126.85 | -$1.8 | 53% 5657-5082 (10739) |
PO pollo07 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $115.74 | $115.06 | -$0.68 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 98.6¢ | $107.44 | $107.04 | -$0.4 | 53% 1609-1415 (3024) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $98.8 | $98.2 | -$0.6 | 51% 4649-4526 (9175) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 98.8¢ | $90.86 | $90.3 | -$0.55 | 28% 521-1360 (1881) |
 LinaBell🦊CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $7.78 | $32.6 | +$26.96 | — 0-9 (9) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $19.68 | $19.64 | -$0.04 | 30% 2706-6209 (8915) |
Invested
$6,335.69
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$39
Record
8%
9-104 (113)
LucerysInvested
$612.46
Value
$607.51
PnL
-$4.93
Record
37%
3197-5378 (8575)
Invested
$405.81
Value
$351.75
PnL
-$1.13
Record
54%
553-471 (1024)
Invested
$133.2
Value
$132.57
PnL
-$0.63
Record
27%
936-2514 (3450)
Invested
$128.65
Value
$126.85
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
5657-5082 (10739)
Invested
$115.74
Value
$115.06
PnL
-$0.68
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$107.44
Value
$107.04
PnL
-$0.4
Record
53%
1609-1415 (3024)
balthazar<$100Invested
$98.8
Value
$98.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
51%
4649-4526 (9175)
Invested
$90.86
Value
$90.3
PnL
-$0.55
Record
28%
521-1360 (1881)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100Invested
$7.78
Value
$32.6
PnL
+$26.96
Record
—
0-9 (9)
Invested
$19.68
Value
$19.64
PnL
-$0.04
Record
30%
2706-6209 (8915)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.