Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
No
11
No 73%
$1.0K
$53.17
74¢ → 72.5¢
-2% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quiet-ferret | Noavg 74.7¢ | $409.29 | $397.3 | -$11.99 | 15% 20-117 (137) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 74.7¢ | $186.8 | $185 | -$1.8 | 53% 7113-6221 (13334) |
BI bipbipbop | Noavg 71.8¢ | $140.75 | $141.98 | +$4.53 | 78% 36-10 (46) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $120 | $119.63 | -$0.38 | 31% 1057-2405 (3462) |
XZ xzsaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $33.97 | $80.28 | +$46.32 | 3% 1-33 (34) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $43.2 | $43.5 | +$0.3 | 24% 39-122 (161) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $53.9 | $29.61 | +$1.2 | 36% 263-468 (731) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 73.1¢ | $13.81 | $13.99 | +$0.18 | 35% 290-535 (825) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.9 | $12.73 | +$7.84 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.77 | $12.4 | +$7.63 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $4.25 | $3.6 | -$0.65 | 42% 1635-2289 (3924) |
Invested
$409.29
Value
$397.3
PnL
-$11.99
Record
15%
20-117 (137)
Invested
$186.8
Value
$185
PnL
-$1.8
Record
53%
7113-6221 (13334)
Invested
$140.75
Value
$141.98
PnL
+$4.53
Record
78%
36-10 (46)
Invested
$120
Value
$119.63
PnL
-$0.38
Record
31%
1057-2405 (3462)
Invested
$33.97
Value
$80.28
PnL
+$46.32
Record
3%
1-33 (34)
Invested
$43.2
Value
$43.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
24%
39-122 (161)
Invested
$53.9
Value
$29.61
PnL
+$1.2
Record
36%
263-468 (731)
Invested
$13.81
Value
$13.99
PnL
+$0.18
Record
35%
290-535 (825)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$12.73
PnL
+$7.84
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$12.4
PnL
+$7.63
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$0.65
Record
42%
1635-2289 (3924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.