Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 60¢ · $489 held · ends Nov 16

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$489.4

Combined PnL

$39.51

Smart Money Entry

58.2¢ → 59.5¢

+2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$348.84

Total Shares581

Combined PnL+$10.51

Yes2 traders

Total Value$38.66

Total Shares97

Combined PnL+$29

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 58.4¢	$147.1	$151.22	+$4.12	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
QU quiet-ferretARB<$100	Noavg 55.7¢	$158.37	$101.88	+$8.06	15% 20-117 (137)
└ No leg	Noavg 55.7¢	$62.42	$66.64	+$8.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.5¢	$35.21	$35.24	+$0.02
BI bipbipbop<$100	Noavg 59¢	$59	$60	+$1	78% 36-10 (46)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 58¢	$49.3	$51	+$1.7	42% 1635-2289 (3924)
TY Tysha<$100	Noavg 58¢	$34.86	$36.06	+$1.2	24% 39-122 (161)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 55¢	$27.91	$30.22	+$2.51	65% 4332-2355 (6687)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.9	$19.59	+$14.69	39% 3661-5820 (9481)
E4 e46m3CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$4.77	$19.07	+$14.3	42% 2632-3664 (6296)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 60.7¢	$9.1	$9	-$0.1	35% 290-535 (825)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 61¢	$6.1	$6	-$0.1	34% 238-461 (699)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 58¢	$5.16	$5.34	+$0.18	31% 1057-2405 (3462)

cigarettes

Invested

$147.1

Value

$151.22

PnL

+$4.12

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

quiet-ferretARB<$100

Invested

$158.37

Value

$101.88

PnL

+$8.06

Record

15%

20-117 (137)

Both legs:

No$62.4255.7¢+$8.03

Yes$35.2140.5¢+$0.02

bipbipbop<$100

Invested

$59

Value

$60

PnL

+$1

Record

78%

36-10 (46)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$49.3

Value

$51

PnL

+$1.7

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

Tysha<$100

Invested

$34.86

Value

$36.06

PnL

+$1.2

Record

24%

39-122 (161)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$27.91

Value

$30.22

PnL

+$2.51

Record

65%

4332-2355 (6687)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.9

Value

$19.59

PnL

+$14.69

Record

39%

3661-5820 (9481)

e46m3CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.77

Value

$19.07

PnL

+$14.3

Record

42%

2632-3664 (6296)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$9.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

290-535 (825)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$6.1

Value

PnL

-$0.1

Record

34%

238-461 (699)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$5.34

PnL

+$0.18

Record

31%

1057-2405 (3462)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 60%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-18 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.