Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 80¢ · $375 held · ends Nov 16

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$374.91

Combined PnL

$15.57

Smart Money Entry

74.6¢ → 79.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$319.71

Total Shares415

Combined PnL+$20.77

Yes1 trader

Total Value$55.2

Total Shares276

Combined PnL-$5.2

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 77¢	$123.2	$124.8	+$1.6	53% 7060-6194 (13254)
AL alex20011	Noavg 78.4¢	$124.42	$69.01	-$2.25	43% 1124-1475 (2599)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 74.1¢	$59.29	$64	+$4.71	34% 276-525 (801)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$63.19	$55.2	-$5.2	15% 20-117 (137)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.2	$21.6	+$2.4	27% 1021-2713 (3734)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 62¢	$12.4	$14.4	+$2	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 72¢	$7.2	$8	+$0.8	65% 4317-2331 (6648)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 70¢	$7	$7.15	+$0.15	30% 243-580 (823)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 72¢	$47.56	$7.15	+$11.16	36% 3768-6825 (10593)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.6	+$0.2	35% 251-467 (718)

cigarettes

Invested

$123.2

Value

$124.8

PnL

+$1.6

Record

53%

7060-6194 (13254)

alex20011

Invested

$124.42

Value

$69.01

PnL

-$2.25

Record

43%

1124-1475 (2599)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$59.29

Value

$64

PnL

+$4.71

Record

34%

276-525 (801)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.19

Value

$55.2

PnL

-$5.2

Record

15%

20-117 (137)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$19.2

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$2.4

Record

27%

1021-2713 (3734)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$12.4

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$2

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

PnL

+$0.8

Record

65%

4317-2331 (6648)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$0.15

Record

30%

243-580 (823)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$47.56

Value

$7.15

PnL

+$11.16

Record

36%

3768-6825 (10593)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.2

Record

35%

251-467 (718)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.