Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 14 to November 16, 2026?
8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $956 held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
No
12
No 67%
$956.35
-$1.31
93.5¢ → 93.5¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 94%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU quiet-ferret | Noavg 93.1¢ | $363.87 | $365.59 | +$1.72 | 15% 20-117 (137) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 93.8¢ | $234.5 | $235 | +$0.5 | 53% 7113-6221 (13334) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 93.3¢ | $107.25 | $108.1 | +$0.85 | 29% 1113-2674 (3787) |
TY Tysha<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $55.86 | $56.46 | +$0.6 | 24% 39-122 (161) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $46.9 | $47 | +$0.1 | 31% 1057-2405 (3462) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $47 | $46.5 | -$0.5 | 36% 263-468 (731) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 94.6¢ | $46.28 | $45.97 | -$0.31 | 42% 1635-2289 (3924) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $37.6 | $37.6 | -$0 | 35% 290-535 (825) |
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $8.53 | $8.21 | -$0.32 | 78% 36-10 (46) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.9 | $2.94 | -$1.96 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $4.77 | $2.86 | -$1.91 | 42% 2632-3664 (6296) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.2 | $0.12 | -$0.08 | 13% 22-150 (172) |
Invested
$363.87
Value
$365.59
PnL
+$1.72
Record
15%
20-117 (137)
Invested
$234.5
Value
$235
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
7113-6221 (13334)
Invested
$107.25
Value
$108.1
PnL
+$0.85
Record
29%
1113-2674 (3787)
Invested
$55.86
Value
$56.46
PnL
+$0.6
Record
24%
39-122 (161)
Invested
$46.9
Value
$47
PnL
+$0.1
Record
31%
1057-2405 (3462)
Invested
$47
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
36%
263-468 (731)
Invested
$46.28
Value
$45.97
PnL
-$0.31
Record
42%
1635-2289 (3924)
Invested
$37.6
Value
$37.6
PnL
-$0
Record
35%
290-535 (825)
Invested
$8.53
Value
$8.21
PnL
-$0.32
Record
78%
36-10 (46)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$2.94
PnL
-$1.96
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
Invested
$4.77
Value
$2.86
PnL
-$1.91
Record
42%
2632-3664 (6296)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.12
PnL
-$0.08
Record
13%
22-150 (172)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.