Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 20

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$259.98

Combined PnL

-$35.88

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 97.9¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$246.58

Total Shares252

Combined PnL-$39.65

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.31

Total Shares511

Combined PnL+$3.76

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Elonurmom	Noavg 96.5¢	$235.04	$97.4	-$38.08	— 3-10 (13)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$38.91	$38.96	+$0.05	36% 378-681 (1059)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$37.71	$37.27	-$0.44	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$31.54	$31.17	-$0.37	38% 101-166 (267)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$29.57	$29.22	-$0.35	42% 1715-2341 (4056)
HI hixlzCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$7.71	$12.96	+$5.25	6% 2-34 (36)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$28.56	$12.56	-$0.45	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$69.84	$0.18	-$1.6	17% 859-4115 (4974)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$7.79	$0.18	+$0.12	38% 3874-6342 (10216)

Elonurmom

Invested

$235.04

Value

$97.4

PnL

-$38.08

Record

—

3-10 (13)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$38.91

Value

$38.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

36%

378-681 (1059)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$37.71

Value

$37.27

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

123987456<$100

Invested

$31.54

Value

$31.17

PnL

-$0.37

Record

38%

101-166 (267)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$29.57

Value

$29.22

PnL

-$0.35

Record

42%

1715-2341 (4056)

hixlzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.71

Value

$12.96

PnL

+$5.25

Record

2-34 (36)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$28.56

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$0.45

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$69.84

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.6

Record

17%

859-4115 (4974)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.79

Value

$0.18

PnL

+$0.12

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.9%

97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.