Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $209 held · ends Nov 20
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$208.84
$67.75
Research grade
AvoidYes at 7%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Mature
47h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hixlzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.7¢ | $25.54 | $99.53 | +$73.99 | 6% 2-34 (36) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $41.82 | $39.72 | -$2.1 | 33% 83-166 (249) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $37.63 | $35.75 | -$1.87 | 53% 7473-6603 (14076) |
BI bipbipbopCTR | Yesavg 5.3¢ | $267.79 | $27.27 | +$2.81 | 81% 44-10 (54) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $2.87 | $4.65 | +$2.35 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $70.13 | $1.41 | -$7.79 | 17% 858-4055 (4913) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $7.76 | $0.4 | +$0.37 | 38% 3808-6231 (10039) |
Invested
$25.54
Value
$99.53
PnL
+$73.99
Record
6%
2-34 (36)
Invested
$41.82
Value
$39.72
PnL
-$2.1
Record
33%
83-166 (249)
Invested
$37.63
Value
$35.75
PnL
-$1.87
Record
53%
7473-6603 (14076)
Invested
$267.79
Value
$27.27
PnL
+$2.81
Record
81%
44-10 (54)
Invested
$2.87
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$2.35
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
Invested
$70.13
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$7.79
Record
17%
858-4055 (4913)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$0.37
Record
38%
3808-6231 (10039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.