Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 98¢ · $466 held · ends Nov 20

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Fri, Nov 20, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$465.61

Combined PnL

-$70.1

Smart Money Entry

98¢ → 98.3¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$403.59

Total Shares410

Combined PnL+$15.55

Yes5 traders

Total Value$61.9

Total Shares5,321

Combined PnL-$85.65

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 99.1¢	$953.5	$350.75	+$10.94	81% 44-10 (54)
ElonurmomCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$138.54	$47.8	-$90.75	— 3-10 (13)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$34.47	$37.95	+$3.48	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$5.56	$12.78	+$7.22	13% 4-27 (31)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$9.01	$9.92	+$0.91	38% 101-166 (267)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$4.74	$4.96	+$0.22	66% 49-25 (74)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$23.09	$1.18	-$0.19	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$7.81	$0.07	-$0.01	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$70.06	$0.07	-$1.93	17% 859-4115 (4974)

bipbipbop

Invested

$953.5

Value

$350.75

PnL

+$10.94

Record

81%

44-10 (54)

ElonurmomCTR

Yes

Invested

$138.54

Value

$47.8

PnL

-$90.75

Record

—

3-10 (13)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$34.47

Value

$37.95

PnL

+$3.48

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.56

Value

$12.78

PnL

+$7.22

Record

13%

4-27 (31)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.01

Value

$9.92

PnL

+$0.91

Record

38%

101-166 (267)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.96

PnL

+$0.22

Record

66%

49-25 (74)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.09

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.81

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.01

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.06

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$1.93

Record

17%

859-4115 (4974)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Late

53h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.