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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 13 to November 20, 2026?

Resolved No. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Yes 86%

Total Value

$38.26

Combined PnL

-$180.41

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$38.26

Total Shares38

Combined PnL-$1.71

Yes9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares10,920

Combined PnL-$178.69

No — 31%Yes — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$38.01	$38.26	+$0.25	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
LinaBell🦊CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$11.62	—	-$6.62	13% 4-27 (31)
ElonurmomCTR	Yesavg 3.3¢	$138.54	—	-$138.54	— 3-10 (13)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$31.12	—	-$2.12	36% 355-622 (977)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$2.87	—	-$2.54	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$8.17	—	-$0.43	38% 3874-6342 (10216)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$82.76	—	-$2.77	42% 5253-7309 (12562)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$10.44	—	-$8.84	35% 3950-7384 (11334)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100	Noavg 99.4¢	$73.05	—	-$2.04	17% 859-4115 (4974)
KA kaxel78<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$7.5	—	-$0.2	26% 614-1782 (2396)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$7.4	—	-$7.02	11% 29-225 (254)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.3¢	$11.5	—	-$9.81	19% 22-95 (117)
BI bipbipbop<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$64.66	—	+$0.28	81% 44-10 (54)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.01

Value

$38.26

PnL

+$0.25

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

LinaBell🦊CTR<$100

Invested

$11.62

Value

—

PnL

-$6.62

Record

13%

4-27 (31)

Invested

$138.54

Value

—

PnL

-$138.54

Record

—

3-10 (13)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$31.12

Value

—

PnL

-$2.12

Record

36%

355-622 (977)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$2.87

Value

—

PnL

-$2.54

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$8.17

Value

—

PnL

-$0.43

Record

38%

3874-6342 (10216)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$82.76

Value

—

PnL

-$2.77

Record

42%

5253-7309 (12562)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$10.44

Value

—

PnL

-$8.84

Record

35%

3950-7384 (11334)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179<$100

Invested

$73.05

Value

—

PnL

-$2.04

Record

17%

859-4115 (4974)

Invested

$7.5

Value

—

PnL

-$0.2

Record

26%

614-1782 (2396)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

—

PnL

-$7.02

Record

11%

29-225 (254)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

—

PnL

-$9.81

Record

19%

22-95 (117)

Invested

$64.66

Value

—

PnL

+$0.28

Record

81%

44-10 (54)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x20249e80...21eabd

Slug

elon-musk-of-tweets-november-13-november-20-2026-100-119

Traders in this Market

cigarettes

No — $38.26

LinaBell🦊

Yes — $0

Elonurmom

Yes — $0

smallreceipt

Yes — $0

ghorrock

Yes — $0

xtxpleasecallme

Yes — $0

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179

No — $0

kaxel78

No — $0

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