Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 67.5¢

-9% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares5,153

Combined PnL+$1.2K

No10 traders

Total Value$883.96

Total Shares1,387

Combined PnL-$62.71

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XZ xzsaCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$491.27	$1.3K	+$831.38	4% 1-24 (25)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$117.71	$411.97	+$294.27	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
BI bipbipbop	Noavg 72.1¢	$646.64	$315.55	-$57.47	85% 23-4 (27)
GO god83743894	Noavg 86.1¢	$201.56	$145.22	-$56.34	30% 189-443 (632)
SM smallreceipt	Noavg 78.3¢	$164.47	$130.2	-$34.27	27% 200-540 (740)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 66.6¢	$644.41	$126.54	+$108.88	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 79¢	$58.44	$84.34	+$25.9	39% 186-294 (480)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.2¢	$22.87	$56.42	+$33.55
└ No leg	Noavg 79¢	$35.57	$27.92	-$7.66
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 63.1¢	$219.57	$49.16	-$1.8	65% 4263-2287 (6550)
QU quiet-ferretCTR	Yesavg 26.9¢	$505.47	$47.73	+$77.41	14% 17-108 (125)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 69.5¢	$41.7	$37.2	-$4.5	31% 225-501 (726)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Noavg 62¢	$27.9	$27.9	+$0	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 87¢	$34.84	$24.83	-$10.01	21% 6-22 (28)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 86¢	$25.8	$18.6	-$7.2	30% 993-2362 (3355)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.2¢	$82.93	$11.36	+$8.87	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 62¢	$8.75	$8.75	+$0	29% 1063-2631 (3694)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 37¢	$144.08	$6.79	+$12.53	45% 4975-6198 (11173)

xzsaCTR

Yes

Invested

$491.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$831.38

Record

1-24 (25)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$117.71

Value

$411.97

PnL

+$294.27

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

bipbipbop

Invested

$646.64

Value

$315.55

PnL

-$57.47

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

god83743894

Invested

$201.56

Value

$145.22

PnL

-$56.34

Record

30%

189-443 (632)

smallreceipt

Invested

$164.47

Value

$130.2

PnL

-$34.27

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

cigarettes

Invested

$644.41

Value

$126.54

PnL

+$108.88

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$58.44

Value

$84.34

PnL

+$25.9

Record

39%

186-294 (480)

Both legs:

Yes$22.8714.2¢+$33.55

No$35.5779¢-$7.66

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$219.57

Value

$49.16

PnL

-$1.8

Record

65%

4263-2287 (6550)

quiet-ferretCTR

Yes

Invested

$505.47

Value

$47.73

PnL

+$77.41

Record

14%

17-108 (125)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$41.7

Value

$37.2

PnL

-$4.5

Record

31%

225-501 (726)

haveagoodday<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$27.9

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$34.84

Value

$24.83

PnL

-$10.01

Record

21%

6-22 (28)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$25.8

Value

$18.6

PnL

-$7.2

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.93

Value

$11.36

PnL

+$8.87

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.75

PnL

+$0

Record

29%

1063-2631 (3694)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$144.08

Value

$6.79

PnL

+$12.53

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.