Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (69%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 69%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$603.74

Smart Money Entry

99.6¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,220

Combined PnL-$262.99

Yes4 traders

Total Value$3.25

Total Shares1,657

Combined PnL-$340.76

No — 69%Yes — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA haveagoodday	Noavg 99.8¢	$394.92	$395.5	+$0.58	41% 1573-2277 (3850)
GO god83743894	Noavg 99.6¢	$258.95	$259.74	+$0.79	30% 189-443 (632)
NO northdrawer	Noavg 99.7¢	$224.33	$224.78	+$0.45	29% 1063-2631 (3694)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.8K	$111.72	-$257.99	52% 1630-1499 (3129)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$59.48	$59.94	+$0.46	27% 200-540 (740)
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 99.2¢	$116.57	$52.6	-$8.03	14% 17-108 (125)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$45.76	$45.31	-$0.46	39% 186-294 (480)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$39	$39.96	+$0.96	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 99.1¢	$29.73	$29.97	+$0.24	30% 993-2362 (3355)
E4 e46m3CTR	Yesavg 10¢	$217.35	$2.15	-$115.25	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$30.18	$0.6	-$29.58	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 9.5¢	$1.2K	$0.31	-$121.07	45% 4975-6198 (11173)
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 10¢	$721.29	$0.19	-$74.86	53% 6646-5820 (12466)

haveagoodday

Invested

$394.92

Value

$395.5

PnL

+$0.58

Record

41%

1573-2277 (3850)

god83743894

Invested

$258.95

Value

$259.74

PnL

+$0.79

Record

30%

189-443 (632)

northdrawer

Invested

$224.33

Value

$224.78

PnL

+$0.45

Record

29%

1063-2631 (3694)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,822.26

Value

$111.72

PnL

-$257.99

Record

52%

1630-1499 (3129)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$59.48

Value

$59.94

PnL

+$0.46

Record

27%

200-540 (740)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$116.57

Value

$52.6

PnL

-$8.03

Record

14%

17-108 (125)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$45.76

Value

$45.31

PnL

-$0.46

Record

39%

186-294 (480)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$39.96

PnL

+$0.96

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$29.73

Value

$29.97

PnL

+$0.24

Record

30%

993-2362 (3355)

e46m3CTR

Yes

Invested

$217.35

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$115.25

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.18

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$29.58

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,226.77

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$121.07

Record

45%

4975-6198 (11173)

cigarettesCTR

Yes

Invested

$721.29

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$74.86

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

69% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.