Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $163 held · ends Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$163.48

Combined PnL

-$16.48

Smart Money Entry

92.2¢ → 98.2¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$150.08

Total Shares153

Combined PnL+$8.82

Yes4 traders

Total Value$13.35

Total Shares729

Combined PnL-$25.3

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 91.8¢	$90.93	$96.97	+$6.04	53% 6404-5641 (12045)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 93¢	$27.9	$29.39	+$1.49	24% 134-423 (557)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 93¢	$13.95	$14.69	+$0.74	33% 178-365 (543)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 92¢	$8.48	$9.03	+$0.55	30% 943-2223 (3166)
QU quiet-ferretCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$25.57	$9.03	-$15.62	14% 17-108 (125)
BI bipbipbopCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.3¢	$5.21	$3.08	-$0.45	85% 23-4 (27)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$6.43	$1.09	-$5.34	40% 3403-5074 (8477)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$8.55	$0.15	-$3.9	18% 829-3702 (4531)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$90.93

Value

$96.97

PnL

+$6.04

Record

53%

6404-5641 (12045)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$27.9

Value

$29.39

PnL

+$1.49

Record

24%

134-423 (557)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$13.95

Value

$14.69

PnL

+$0.74

Record

33%

178-365 (543)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$8.48

Value

$9.03

PnL

+$0.55

Record

30%

943-2223 (3166)

quiet-ferretCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.57

Value

$9.03

PnL

-$15.62

Record

14%

17-108 (125)

bipbipbopCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.21

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$0.45

Record

85%

23-4 (27)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.43

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$5.34

Record

40%

3403-5074 (8477)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.55

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$3.9

Record

18%

829-3702 (4531)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 98%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.