Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $699 held · ends Nov 14

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$699.42

Combined PnL

-$11.38

Smart Money Entry

92.9¢ → 92.3¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$698.29

Total Shares760

Combined PnL-$7.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.13

Total Shares13

Combined PnL-$4.18

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QU quiet-ferret	Noavg 93.7¢	$453.67	$447.1	-$6.57	12% 15-108 (123)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$91.58	$91.28	-$0.3	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 89.6¢	$89.6	$91.25	+$1.65	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 92.5¢	$53.51	$42.57	-$1.03	53% 933-821 (1754)
MI mildwindow27<$100	Noavg 93.8¢	$14.07	$13.44	-$0.63	29% 893-2183 (3076)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 91.9¢	$12.98	$12.65	-$0.32	17% 94-450 (544)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$9.59	$0.79	-$4.29	19% 816-3585 (4401)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.2¢	$0.42	$0.33	+$0.12	65% 4173-2205 (6378)

quiet-ferret

Invested

$453.67

Value

$447.1

PnL

-$6.57

Record

12%

15-108 (123)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$91.58

Value

$91.28

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$89.6

Value

$91.25

PnL

+$1.65

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.51

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$1.03

Record

53%

933-821 (1754)

mildwindow27<$100

Invested

$14.07

Value

$13.44

PnL

-$0.63

Record

29%

893-2183 (3076)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$12.98

Value

$12.65

PnL

-$0.32

Record

17%

94-450 (544)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.59

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$4.29

Record

19%

816-3585 (4401)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.33

PnL

+$0.12

Record

65%

4173-2205 (6378)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.6%

92.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.