Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 4

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$164.85

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 68.5¢

+53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,115

Combined PnL+$168.65

Over3 traders

Total Value$378.14

Total Shares630

Combined PnL-$3.79

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 41¢	$929.11	$929.11	+$11.33	48% 303-327 (630)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 52.8¢	$536.76	$653.68	+$116.92	51% 24219-22949 (47168)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 59¢	$335.51	$332.71	-$2.79	50% 25481-25189 (50670)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 52.6¢	$201.35	$209.57	+$8.22	48% 59237-63255 (122492)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.6¢	$132.33	$123.24	-$9.09
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.8¢	$69.02	$86.33	+$17.31
RN1	Underavg 50.1¢	$147.28	$192.61	+$45.33	53% 60059-52427 (112486)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$94.97	$91.13	-$3.85	54% 1189-1028 (2217)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 44.2¢	$67.6	$69.66	+$2.06	52% 1158-1077 (2235)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 42.2¢	$60.36	$57.92	-$2.44	51% 1093-1042 (2135)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 56.6¢	$36.04	$34.92	-$1.12	53% 16517-14663 (31180)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 43.2¢	$14.48	$13.9	-$0.58	52% 1146-1041 (2187)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$17.11	$10.51	+$0.12	58% 45427-32914 (78341)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 46.2¢	$4.62	$4.45	-$0.17	51% 7648-7364 (15012)
GC GC-P<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.93	$3.97	+$0.04	39% 1338-2112 (3450)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$929.11

Value

$929.11

PnL

+$11.33

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$536.76

Value

$653.68

PnL

+$116.92

Record

51%

24219-22949 (47168)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$335.51

Value

$332.71

PnL

-$2.79

Record

50%

25481-25189 (50670)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$201.35

Value

$209.57

PnL

+$8.22

Record

48%

59237-63255 (122492)

Both legs:

Over$132.3352.6¢-$9.09

Under$69.0240.8¢+$17.31

RN1

Under

Invested

$147.28

Value

$192.61

PnL

+$45.33

Record

53%

60059-52427 (112486)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$94.97

Value

$91.13

PnL

-$3.85

Record

54%

1189-1028 (2217)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$67.6

Value

$69.66

PnL

+$2.06

Record

52%

1158-1077 (2235)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$60.36

Value

$57.92

PnL

-$2.44

Record

51%

1093-1042 (2135)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.04

Value

$34.92

PnL

-$1.12

Record

53%

16517-14663 (31180)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$14.48

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

1146-1041 (2187)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.11

Value

$10.51

PnL

+$0.12

Record

58%

45427-32914 (78341)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.45

PnL

-$0.17

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

GC-P<$100

Under

Invested

$3.93

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0.04

Record

39%

1338-2112 (3450)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.