Watford FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 60¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$21.2K
-$259.47
59¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MU Multicoloured-Serf | Underavg 59¢ | $12.0K | $12.0K | +$0 | 48% 403-445 (848) |
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR | Overavg 42.2¢ | $9.1K | $8.8K | -$260.84 | 42% 8117-11313 (19430) |
TH TheComboConnoisseur | Underavg 59¢ | $295 | $295 | +$0 | 53% 1125-987 (2112) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 40¢ | $45.82 | $46.96 | +$1.15 | 58% 47459-34244 (81703) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $12.68 | $12.9 | +$0.22 | 51% 27041-25614 (52655) |
Invested
$11,977.33
Value
$12.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
403-445 (848)
Invested
$9,102.79
Value
$8.8K
PnL
-$260.84
Record
42%
8117-11313 (19430)
Invested
$295
Value
$295
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
1125-987 (2112)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$45.82
Value
$46.96
PnL
+$1.15
Record
58%
47459-34244 (81703)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$12.9
PnL
+$0.22
Record
51%
27041-25614 (52655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.