Portsmouth FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5

9 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 95¢ · $23K held · ended Nov 3

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 94.5¢

+65% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares26,258

Combined PnL-$121.01

Over10 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares12,896

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 57.8¢	$8.9K	$8.6K	-$283.7	54% 1192-1025 (2217)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$56.55	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 56¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$0	48% 276-299 (575)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 58.7¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$133.99	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 42.4¢	$2.5K	$1.5K	$-1.0K	50% 27298-27227 (54525)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 61¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$75.54	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$824.09	$925.34	+$101.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.9¢	$664.46	$487.67	-$176.79
GA GamblingOdyssey	Underavg 56¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$12.5	51% 890-847 (1737)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 56.1¢	$703.32	$651.18	+$0.47	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 43¢	$430	$440	+$10	54% 5090-4308 (9398)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 43¢	$341.89	$329.98	-$11.91	49% 14107-14668 (28775)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$310	$311	+$1	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$224	$222	-$2
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$86	$89	+$3
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 43¢	$252.25	$257.94	+$5.76	53% 16384-14558 (30942)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 56¢	$224	$226	+$2	51% 1717-1639 (3356)
KY Kyn008CTR	Overavg 44¢	$197.36	$195.12	-$2.24	49% 277-290 (567)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 44.3¢	$839.39	$108.61	-$4.78	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 55.3¢	$66.01	$79.43	+$13.43	50% 35607-35082 (70689)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$32.43	$30.02	-$2.42	58% 30476-22265 (52741)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 54¢	$11.07	$11.48	+$0.31	51% 7341-7085 (14426)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.8	+$0	50% 25247-24961 (50208)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$2.79	$2.66	-$0.14	45% 13648-16581 (30229)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 46.2¢	$2.31	$2.2	-$0.11	56% 942-736 (1678)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$8,904.05

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$283.7

Record

54%

1192-1025 (2217)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$2,884.95

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$56.55

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$2,825.1

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

276-299 (575)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,957.26

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$133.99

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$2,506.03

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

50%

27298-27227 (54525)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,488.56

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$75.54

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Under$824.0961¢+$101.25

Over$664.4642.9¢-$176.79

GamblingOdyssey

Under

Invested

$1,400

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

890-847 (1737)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$703.32

Value

$651.18

PnL

+$0.47

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$440

PnL

+$10

Record

54%

5090-4308 (9398)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$341.89

Value

$329.98

PnL

-$11.91

Record

49%

14107-14668 (28775)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$310

Value

$311

PnL

+$1

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

Both legs:

Invested

$252.25

Value

$257.94

PnL

+$5.76

Record

53%

16384-14558 (30942)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$224

Value

$226

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1717-1639 (3356)

Kyn008CTR

Over

Invested

$197.36

Value

$195.12

PnL

-$2.24

Record

49%

277-290 (567)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$839.39

Value

$108.61

PnL

-$4.78

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$66.01

Value

$79.43

PnL

+$13.43

Record

50%

35607-35082 (70689)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.43

Value

$30.02

PnL

-$2.42

Record

58%

30476-22265 (52741)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$11.07

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

7341-7085 (14426)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

25247-24961 (50208)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.79

Value

$2.66

PnL

-$0.14

Record

45%

13648-16581 (30229)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$0.11

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 19 top traders (47%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.