Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Bolton Wanderers FC win on 2026-11-06?

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 34¢ · $19K held · ends Nov 6

Yes34¢No66¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

-$86.79

Smart Money Entry

38.6¢ → 33.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares15,456

Combined PnL-$222.9

No10 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,827

Combined PnL+$136.12

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR	Yesavg 39.5¢	$5.2K	$4.6K	-$232.81	54% 88-74 (162)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$59.39	64% 10070-5629 (15699)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$77.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.3¢	$805.2	$787.55	-$17.64
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$54.69	64% 10093-5699 (15792)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.4¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$74.81
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.5¢	$692.61	$672.5	-$20.11
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 61¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$135.15	50% 2753-2730 (5483)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 34.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$23.32	51% 26331-24957 (51288)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.4¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$37.28
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$580.01	$612.39	+$13.96
FaroeseNationalistCTR	Yesavg 34¢	$755.48	$766.59	+$11.11	49% 573-588 (1161)
LI Limousin	Noavg 65.2¢	$735.38	$739.31	+$3.93	51% 1648-1556 (3204)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Noavg 63¢	$500	$503.97	+$3.97	47% 364-413 (777)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 66¢	$468.66	$465.11	-$3.55	50% 37969-37225 (75194)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 64¢	$384	$381	-$3	51% 1987-1920 (3907)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 67.1¢	$279.71	$272.95	-$6.76	49% 1546-1631 (3177)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$201.64	$202.15	+$0.51	50% 26109-25769 (51878)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35¢	$150.28	$148.06	-$2.22
└ No leg	Noavg 62.2¢	$51.36	$54.09	+$2.73
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 63¢	$112.97	$119.25	+$6.28	50% 28617-28446 (57063)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$87.67	$89.45	+$1.78	56% 8104-6429 (14533)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34¢	$68	$69	+$1
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$19.67	$20.45	+$0.78
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$47.92	$47.3	-$0.62	48% 61939-66798 (128737)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$33.7	$33.37	-$0.32	50% 1611-1634 (3245)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 65¢	$32.5	$32.75	+$0.25	51% 6449-6228 (12677)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 64¢	$23.24	$23.24	+$0.18	53% 16941-15068 (32009)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.1¢	$12.64	$12.06	-$0.58	54% 10096-8478 (18574)

0x46072f22bC5624f7Ff43489d570FDc7e745Ad542-1774720903403CTR

Yes

Invested

$5,154.27

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$232.81

Record

54%

88-74 (162)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$3,163.26

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$59.39

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

Both legs:

No$2,358.0663.4¢+$77.04

Yes$805.235.3¢-$17.64

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$3,004.05

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$54.69

Record

64%

10093-5699 (15792)

Both legs:

No$2,311.4463.4¢+$74.81

Yes$692.6135.5¢-$20.11

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$2,355.4

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$135.15

Record

50%

2753-2730 (5483)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,958.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$23.32

Record

51%

26331-24957 (51288)

Both legs:

Yes$1,378.7534.4¢-$37.28

No$580.0163¢+$13.96

FaroeseNationalistCTR

Yes

Invested

$755.48

Value

$766.59

PnL

+$11.11

Record

49%

573-588 (1161)

Limousin

Invested

$735.38

Value

$739.31

PnL

+$3.93

Record

51%

1648-1556 (3204)

Multicoloured-Serf

Invested

$500

Value

$503.97

PnL

+$3.97

Record

47%

364-413 (777)

SnakeBall

Invested

$468.66

Value

$465.11

PnL

-$3.55

Record

50%

37969-37225 (75194)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$384

Value

$381

PnL

-$3

Record

51%

1987-1920 (3907)

MadridTime

Invested

$279.71

Value

$272.95

PnL

-$6.76

Record

49%

1546-1631 (3177)

sentrioARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$201.64

Value

$202.15

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

26109-25769 (51878)

Both legs:

Yes$150.2835¢-$2.22

No$51.3662.2¢+$2.73

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$112.97

Value

$119.25

PnL

+$6.28

Record

50%

28617-28446 (57063)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.67

Value

$89.45

PnL

+$1.78

Record

56%

8104-6429 (14533)

Both legs:

Yes$6834¢+$1

No$19.6763¢+$0.78

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.92

Value

$47.3

PnL

-$0.62

Record

48%

61939-66798 (128737)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$33.7

Value

$33.37

PnL

-$0.32

Record

50%

1611-1634 (3245)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$32.5

Value

$32.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

51%

6449-6228 (12677)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$23.24

Value

$23.24

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.64

Value

$12.06

PnL

-$0.58

Record

54%

10096-8478 (18574)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 34%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.