Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-09-09?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 70¢ · $4K held · ended Sep 9

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Wed, Sep 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

$68.11

Smart Money Entry

80¢ → 69.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,968

Combined PnL-$48.54

Yes2 traders

Total Value$682.36

Total Shares2,176

Combined PnL+$116.65

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 78.6¢	$2.8K	$2.9K	+$46.1	58% 50265-36309 (86574)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 25.2¢	$561.12	$676.27	+$115.15	53% 60045-52422 (112467)
LA LaarsYARB<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$334.42	$346.52	+$12.1	51% 3519-3428 (6947)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$217.5	$228.75	+$11.25
└ No leg	Noavg 69¢	$116.92	$117.77	+$0.85
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.9¢	$302.05	$210.13	-$91.91	98% 14684-327 (15011)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 72¢	$72	$69.5	-$2.5	51% 1789-1707 (3496)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 71¢	$10.65	$10.42	-$0.23	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$4.59	$6.09	+$1.5	66% 23982-12171 (36153)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$2,843.88

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$46.1

Record

58%

50265-36309 (86574)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$561.12

Value

$676.27

PnL

+$115.15

Record

53%

60045-52422 (112467)

LaarsYARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$334.42

Value

$346.52

PnL

+$12.1

Record

51%

3519-3428 (6947)

Both legs:

Yes$217.529¢+$11.25

No$116.9269¢+$0.85

pvc975

Invested

$302.05

Value

$210.13

PnL

-$91.91

Record

98%

14684-327 (15011)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

$72

Value

$69.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

51%

1789-1707 (3496)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$10.65

Value

$10.42

PnL

-$0.23

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.59

Value

$6.09

PnL

+$1.5

Record

66%

23982-12171 (36153)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.