Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Cardiff City FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5

10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Under (59%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 4

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 59%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.2K

Combined PnL

$-6.4K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares28,846

Combined PnL$-6.4K

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,346

Combined PnL+$31.12

Under — 59%Over — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 46.1¢	$10.7K	$6.1K	$-4.6K	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.1¢	$8.6K	$4.0K	$-4.6K
└ Over leg	Overavg 78.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$7.08
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$11.5K	$5.0K	$-6.5K	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 76.9¢	$4.0K	$3.4K	-$606.72	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
└ Over leg	Overavg 76.9¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$170.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 38.4¢	$1.5K	$684.54	-$776.83
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 49.3¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$78.72	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 33.7¢	$780.3	$601.42	-$178.88	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.7¢	$614.31	$373.9	-$240.41
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$165.98	$227.51	+$61.53
VeryLucky888	Overavg 48.5¢	$638.52	$575.99	-$3.69	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$501.66	$526.8	+$25.14	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49.5¢	$495	$520	+$25	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Overavg 48¢	$323.01	$323.01	+$0	55% 1857-1549 (3406)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 56.9¢	$187.79	$208.97	+$21.18	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 21.8¢	$110.94	$101.64	-$9.3	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Overavg 50.4¢	$59.83	$90.53	+$30.7	82% 2584-575 (3159)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$77.83	$79.36	+$1.53	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 54.2¢	$64.01	$56.64	-$7.37	59% 31875-22502 (54377)
DA dashattackerCTR<$100	Underavg 60.2¢	$31.07	$26.83	-$4.24	73% 2899-1088 (3987)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$21.56	$22.88	+$1.32	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 65.6¢	$29.83	$21.81	-$8.02	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$13.17	$12.86	-$0.31	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 95.2¢	$9.52	$7.85	-$1.67	76% 4413-1366 (5779)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.6	+$0.05	51% 1793-1714 (3507)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$10,723.63

Value

$6.1K

PnL

$-4.6K

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

Both legs:

Under$8,608.5846.1¢$-4.6K

Over$2,115.0578.2¢+$7.08

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$11,500.43

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,003.47

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$606.72

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

Both legs:

Over$2,542.0976.9¢+$170.11

Under$1,461.3838.4¢-$776.83

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$1,462.47

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$78.72

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$780.3

Value

$601.42

PnL

-$178.88

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

Both legs:

Under$614.3133.7¢-$240.41

Over$165.9858¢+$61.53

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$638.52

Value

$575.99

PnL

-$3.69

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$501.66

Value

$526.8

PnL

+$25.14

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$495

Value

$520

PnL

+$25

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Over

Invested

$323.01

Value

$323.01

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1857-1549 (3406)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$187.79

Value

$208.97

PnL

+$21.18

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$110.94

Value

$101.64

PnL

-$9.3

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Over

Invested

$59.83

Value

$90.53

PnL

+$30.7

Record

82%

2584-575 (3159)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$77.83

Value

$79.36

PnL

+$1.53

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$64.01

Value

$56.64

PnL

-$7.37

Record

59%

31875-22502 (54377)

dashattackerCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.07

Value

$26.83

PnL

-$4.24

Record

73%

2899-1088 (3987)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$21.56

Value

$22.88

PnL

+$1.32

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$29.83

Value

$21.81

PnL

-$8.02

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.17

Value

$12.86

PnL

-$0.31

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$9.52

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$1.67

Record

76%

4413-1366 (5779)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.