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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Over — but Under won instead.

Rochdale AFC vs. York City FC: O/U 1.5

Resolved Under. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Over 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$957.78

Combined PnL

-$426.24

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%
Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares877
Combined PnL$-1.0K
Under4 traders
Total Value$861.59
Total Shares862
Combined PnL+$617.42
Over — 20%Under — 80%
FL
FlaznorpCTR
Over

Invested

$1,043.65

Value

—

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

VE
Venusian
Under

Invested

$193.93

Value

$741.88

PnL

+$547.95

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

GO
GoalLineGhostARB<$100
Over

Invested

$205.9

Value

$96.19

PnL

-$109.71

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Both legs:

Under$41.8843.5¢+$54.31
Over$164.0234.9¢-$164.02
VeryLucky888<$100
Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$65.27

PnL

+$53.52

Record

53%

1376-1196 (2572)

DA
dashattacker<$100
Under

Invested

$27.11

Value

$32.27

PnL

+$5.16

Record

64%

303-171 (474)

LU
LuckyLoo<$100
Under

Invested

$11.39

Value

$22.17

PnL

+$10.78

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xc1af8aef...fd1f98
Slug
el2-roc-yor-2026-11-14-total-1pt5

Traders in this Market

FL

Flaznorp

CTR

Over — $0

$-1.0K
VE

Venusian

Under — $741.88

+$547.95
GO

GoalLineGhost

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$109.71

VeryLucky888

Under — $65.27

+$53.52
DA

dashattacker

Under — $32.27

+$5.16
LU

LuckyLoo

Under — $22.17

+$10.78
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