Will Huddersfield Town AFC win on 2026-11-14?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 14

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$765.64

Combined PnL

-$11.9

Smart Money Entry

92.3¢ → 96.7¢

+5% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$762.02

Total Shares785

Combined PnL+$1.21

Yes2 traders

Total Value$2.8

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$13.11

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 98¢	$1.0K	$244.57	-$1.96	49% 43869-46551 (90420)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 99.1¢	$172.31	$167.98	-$4.33	39% 1314-2061 (3375)
XT xtxpleasecallme	No	$117.1	$117.1	+$10.33	35% 19622-37185 (56807)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 55.8¢	$104.11	$95.65	-$4.9	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$70.86	$68.62	-$2.24	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99¢	$42.04	$41.04	-$1	47% 2105-2397 (4502)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$17.8	$17.82	+$0.02	53% 4656-4095 (8751)
CA canupdatelateron<$100	Noavg 92¢	$74.32	$9.23	+$5.29	65% 573-304 (877)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 39.5¢	$17.22	$2.59	-$13.65	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$1.2	$0.21	+$0.54	51% 364-346 (710)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$1,030.93

Value

$244.57

PnL

-$1.96

Record

49%

43869-46551 (90420)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$172.31

Value

$167.98

PnL

-$4.33

Record

39%

1314-2061 (3375)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$117.1

Value

$117.1

PnL

+$10.33

Record

35%

19622-37185 (56807)

Flaznorp

Invested

$104.11

Value

$95.65

PnL

-$4.9

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$70.86

Value

$68.62

PnL

-$2.24

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$42.04

Value

$41.04

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

2105-2397 (4502)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

4656-4095 (8751)

canupdatelateron<$100

Invested

$74.32

Value

$9.23

PnL

+$5.29

Record

65%

573-304 (877)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.22

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$13.65

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$0.21

PnL

+$0.54

Record

51%

364-346 (710)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.