Wigan Athletic FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 66¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 14

Over66¢Under34¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$121.09

Smart Money Entry

64¢ → 65.5¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares9,750

Combined PnL+$120.76

Under2 traders

Total Value$3.72

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.32

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 64¢	$5.6K	$5.8K	+$131.75	51% 3849-3640 (7489)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 64.5¢	$370.32	$376.01	+$5.68	54% 2027-1761 (3788)
BI biying99999	Overavg 64¢	$110.08	$103.2	-$6.88	34% 96-187 (283)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 64.7¢	$97.59	$90.63	-$6.95	53% 1232-1075 (2307)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 64¢	$32	$30	-$2	56% 434-347 (781)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 64¢	$13.44	$12.6	-$0.84	48% 269-290 (559)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$2	+$0.3	49% 3640-3753 (7393)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 34¢	$1.7	$1.72	+$0.02	43% 949-1283 (2232)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$5,623.64

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$131.75

Record

51%

3849-3640 (7489)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$370.32

Value

$376.01

PnL

+$5.68

Record

54%

2027-1761 (3788)

biying99999

Over

Invested

$110.08

Value

$103.2

PnL

-$6.88

Record

34%

96-187 (283)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$97.59

Value

$90.63

PnL

-$6.95

Record

53%

1232-1075 (2307)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$32

Value

$30

PnL

-$2

Record

56%

434-347 (781)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$13.44

Value

$12.6

PnL

-$0.84

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

3640-3753 (7393)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.7

Value

$1.72

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

949-1283 (2232)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.