Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (100%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Wigan Athletic FC vs. Barnsley FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 0.1¢ · $603 held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$602.79

Combined PnL

-$157.87

Smart Money Entry

38.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$372.64

Total Shares1,352

Combined PnL-$160.81

Under2 traders

Total Value$37.4

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$2.94

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 39.2¢	$410.59	$287.4	-$123.19	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LO lonmi2511ARB<$100	Overavg 40¢	$226.55	$192.74	-$33.8	60% 712-483 (1195)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$160.8	$108.54	-$52.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$65.75	$84.2	+$18.46
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$63.16	$42.63	-$20.53	36% 933-1644 (2577)
DA dashattacker<$100	Underavg 91.2¢	$30.81	$33.75	+$2.94	64% 300-171 (471)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$42	$28.35	-$13.65	56% 463-370 (833)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 8.8¢	$2.96	$9.12	+$6.16	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$5.13	$5.13	+$0	37% 960-1662 (2622)
RN1<$100	Underavg 73¢	$3.65	$3.65	+$0	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 37.5¢	$9.61	$0.01	-$9.6	48% 2074-2236 (4310)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$410.59

Value

$287.4

PnL

-$123.19

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

lonmi2511ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$226.55

Value

$192.74

PnL

-$33.8

Record

60%

712-483 (1195)

Both legs:

Over$160.840¢-$52.26

Under$65.7557¢+$18.46

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.16

Value

$42.63

PnL

-$20.53

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

dashattacker<$100

Under

Invested

$30.81

Value

$33.75

PnL

+$2.94

Record

64%

300-171 (471)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42

Value

$28.35

PnL

-$13.65

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.96

Value

$9.12

PnL

+$6.16

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.13

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$3.65

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.61

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$9.6

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.