Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (59%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Stockport County FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 3.5

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 42¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 14

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.1K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 41.5¢

+4% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over11 traders

Total Value$9.9K

Total Shares27,365

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 40¢	$9.8K	$8.8K	-$978.01	51% 3869-3650 (7519)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Overavg 40¢	$386.53	$347.88	-$38.65	40% 115-175 (290)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 40.5¢	$330.04	$293.13	-$36.9	49% 3807-3970 (7777)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 40¢	$269.83	$254.45	-$15.38	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$207	$186.3	-$20.7
└ Under leg	Underavg 59¢	$62.83	$68.15	+$5.32
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 40¢	$205.84	$185.26	-$20.58	36% 928-1642 (2570)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 40.5¢	$81	$72	-$9	53% 1340-1169 (2509)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$60.8	$54.72	-$6.08	48% 286-304 (590)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 40.4¢	$56.2	$50.04	-$6.16	56% 461-367 (828)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$28.42	$25.58	-$2.84	37% 966-1630 (2596)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$15.33	$13.46	-$1.87	35% 438-797 (1235)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$6.15	$6.23	+$0.07	25% 340-1017 (1357)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$2.05	$1.8	-$0.25	42% 990-1359 (2349)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$9,780.1

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$978.01

Record

51%

3869-3650 (7519)

mouzsynapseCTR

Over

Invested

$386.53

Value

$347.88

PnL

-$38.65

Record

40%

115-175 (290)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$330.04

Value

$293.13

PnL

-$36.9

Record

49%

3807-3970 (7777)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$269.83

Value

$254.45

PnL

-$15.38

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

Both legs:

Invested

$205.84

Value

$185.26

PnL

-$20.58

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$81

Value

$72

PnL

-$9

Record

53%

1340-1169 (2509)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.8

Value

$54.72

PnL

-$6.08

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.2

Value

$50.04

PnL

-$6.16

Record

56%

461-367 (828)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.42

Value

$25.58

PnL

-$2.84

Record

37%

966-1630 (2596)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.33

Value

$13.46

PnL

-$1.87

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$6.15

Value

$6.23

PnL

+$0.07

Record

25%

340-1017 (1357)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.05

Value

$1.8

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

990-1359 (2349)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 42%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 59%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.