Stockport County FC vs. Reading FC: O/U 2.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

63¢ → 100¢

+59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares10,688

Combined PnL+$3.9K

Under5 traders

Total Value$0.57

Total Shares279

Combined PnL-$38.67

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Overavg 63¢	$5.8K	$9.2K	+$3.4K	51% 3870-3654 (7524)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 63¢	$841.3	$1.3K	+$486.61	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 63¢	$63.13	$63.14	+$0.01	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 63¢	$31.5	$31.5	+$0	56% 463-370 (833)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$2.96	$0.43	-$2.53	42% 995-1363 (2358)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$10.15	$0.08	-$10.07	37% 960-1662 (2622)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 14.9¢	$8.05	$0.03	-$8.02	36% 933-1644 (2577)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$17.05	$0.02	-$17.03	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
SecondhandvinylCTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$1.02	$0	-$1.02	76% 235-76 (311)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Over

Invested

$5,801.82

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

51%

3870-3654 (7524)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$841.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$486.61

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$63.13

Value

$63.14

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.5

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.96

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$2.53

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.15

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$10.07

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$8.02

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.05

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$17.03

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

SecondhandvinylCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.02

Value

PnL

-$1.02

Record

76%

235-76 (311)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.